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Friday, 21 March 2014

NASDAQ-100 : 21 March 2014, Friday, 10.30pm Singapore Time

NASDAQ-100 Technical Analysis: 21 March 2014, Friday, 10.30pm Singapore Time

Attached above is the technical analysis of the NASDAQ-100 Chart

As shown above, the 12-year secular bull market of 2002-2014 has finally reached its eventual price satisfaction point at 3635 points to end the bull market and initiate the start of a new bear market.

It is prudent for one to unload stocks and equities as a risk management SOP as the bull market has ended and a new bear market is underway.

The entire timeline of what is happening is as indicated in the chart above.

"Interest Rate-Unemployment Rate-Equities Market" Tripartite Relationship

The chart above is a supplement to the NASDAQ analysis (NASDAQ: leading indicator of US Markets), illustrating in full the "Interest Rate-Unemployment Rate-Equities Market" tripartite relationship and why the interest rate rise may produce different effects this time round due to the fact that circumstances are not normal since the 2008 financial crisis. Circumstances are not normal as already reflected by the flattened interest rates curve with respect to the decreasing unemployment rates. This is due to the massive deflationary pressures acting on the US economy since 2008. Under such abnormally deflationary circumstances, with toxic assets as inevitable by-products of the 2008 crisis which have not been fully purged out, a rise in interest rate easily stimulates the deflationary forces to rear its ugly head, and this is bearish for stocks, equities and commodities markets. Furthermore, the rise in interest rates is now on the premise of persistently high unemployment (above 6%). In addition, this 6% excludes the population who have already given up looking for jobs. 6% unemployment is a threshold support in classical trends analysis that is difficult to be improved upon, now made worse by the expected increase in rates. Unemployment rate is expected to be supported at 6% in the US labour market (The New Normal: see data charted above) and is expected to worsen from this threshold zone from 2014 onwards (refer to the series of BLACK & GREEN CIRCLES marked in the data chart as above for what is happening).

NASDAQ-100 Technical Analysis: 21 March 2014, Friday, 10.30pm Singapore Time


The next chart above is the detailed Elliot Wave count (A-B-C with internal 5-3-5) of the 12 year move from 795.4 points to the current 3676.4 points, bearing in mind that the price satisfaction for the 12-year move is 3635.0 points, a final upmove target that has already been achieved to end this bull market. NASDAQ, a leading indicator of US Markets (DJIA, S&P500, NASDAQ, Russell 2000 and Russell 3000) already have limited upside and tremendous downside risk, as with worldwide financial markets (refer to previous capital flight and smart money exodus proofs as highlighted in earlier analyses).

(Note that this is the NASDAQ-100 not the NASDAQ Composite, however, both are the same in characteristics).

Donovan Norfolk Ang Technical Rating:
Bearish
(Bearish also on all international stocks and equities)

Related:
(Capital flight/exodus from worldwide bank stocks)

(The Great Capital Flight of Emerging Markets)

(Straits Times Index as preview of World Markets)

(Straits Property Index as preview of World Property Markets)

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