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Tuesday, 25 December 2018

Short Term Technicals of S&P 500 and Important Write-up (A sharing of my past 17 years of stock market experience and insight as well): 25 December 2018, Tuesday, 3.33pm Singapore Time

Short Term Technicals of S&P 500 and Important Write-up (A sharing of my past 17 years of stock market experience and insight as well): 
25 December 2018, Tuesday, 3.33pm Singapore Time

Attached is the Short Term Technicals of the S&P 500 Index. The S&P 500 is doing a short term standard flagpole-flag-flagpole correction. This technical price structure of pole + flag + pole is reaching its price satisfaction zone soon at 2300-2330 points to end the correction. In the longer term, the bull market price structure is still strong. Someone made a special effort to organize and re-summarize all my recent teachings, and shared on his Facebook Wall with his readers. I felt his summary of my teachings was very well done, so I am sharing it here, and further to that I have added quite a number of substantially important points at the ending eight paragraphs. This represents my most sincere effort in sharing my knowledge and experience:

Almost everyone, including every single media, is calling for market to tank, crash or be bear market in 2019 based on their simplistic definition of bear market definitions. As a matter of fact, this correction is considered healthy. From the technicals of S&P 500, the correction is ending soon. This is where funds are looking to buy and where there will be sellers around the world joining a stale correction. 95% of the world is successfully being brainwashed bearishly by 95% of the world now.

Do not only use technical analysis to judge it is bear market. It is naive and high risk to just use technical analysis to declare bear market, as it is shallow and not holistic. Technical analysis side is bearish, yes, but funds flow analysis and fundamental analysis are still STRONGLY positive, and economic projections in my financial model (similarly, economic projections of many high end economic institutes as well) still points significantly to expansionary cycle (bull market cycle). TA = bearish; FA = bullish; FFA = bullish; EP-2019 = expansionary + govt fiscal stimulus = bullish. China is now the first to declare to use fiscal policies (big tax cuts) as stimulus for 2019, in line with my previous anticipation. (Refer my recent fore-warnings that governments worldwide will use fiscal policies in place of monetary policies to stimulate growth, uptrend and bull market).

The China Treasury had scooped up the Chinese Market not long ago. The size is not small. It is significant. They had declared the operation previously. Now the US Treasury will also convene a Plunge Protection Team. The US Treasury is forming this Plunge Protection Team with the top 6 biggest banks of the US -- Bank of America (BAC.N), CitiGroup (C.N), Goldman Sachs (GS.N), JP Morgan Chase (JPM.N), Morgan Stanley (MS.N) and Wells Fargo (WFC.N).

From my past 17 years of stock market experience, my young years till my middle-age years of now, the Central Bank, Finance Ministry and Treasury of any country does not support the market or scoop up the market if the world is to be entering true recession or bear market of any form. They will be more than happy to let it crash if the cycle had truly completed and Central Banks are in good shape. They intervene only at the bottom or at mid-point stage of an economic cycle when malicious short-selling or malicious opportunistic puts from particular groups are causing unnecessary fear, and these malicious shorts/puts are not warranted and not allowed to derail the economic expansionary cycle.

Plunge Protection Teams (PPT) never come in during the start of a bear market, they also do not come in during early bear market phase when market bear has a long journey of beating to go. Plunge Protection's entries almost always mark an end to malicious activities and also mark a bottomline to these malicious activities. Their entries also almost always mark a start of the next large wave up.

Only large wave means the Treasury and the PPT efforts are worth it. Only large wave up justifies large scale buying by the PPT. This is often guaranteed behind the back by governments and their future fiscal policies to come. On 6th October 2008, the working group of Plunge Protection Team issued a statement indicating that it was taking multiple actions available to it in order to attempt to stabilize the financial system. October 2008 to March 2009 marked the bottoms worldwide for large scale up-wave. This is not the only example that I can list. I can list so many examples from my rich experience and from my in-depth researches of the markets.

As the US Treasury and the Plunge Protection Team involving all top 6 of the biggest banks are convened (reiterate: they never bother to buy during any bear market phase, they only buy when a large scale up-wave can be guaranteed), this represents a secular bull market's 【mid-point】 being confirmed now. Remember, as I had pointed out, China has done this recently already. Now US as well.

A secular bull market's pivoting mid-point is being confirmed by both US and China now, both being the top two largest economies in the world. Where they come in are pivoting support levels that will hold for a long time for the next large wave up (justification for the PPT/Treasuries' large scale buying support). The last time this happened was Oct 2008-Mar 2009, yielding for multi-fold bull markets.

China is applying strong fiscal stimulus. So is the US, more fiscal policy tools to come from the US government. No banks or central banks will apply monetary stimulus at this stage of the cycle because this stage of the cycle is supposed to be QT (Quantitative Tightening) and not QE (Quantitative Easing). It is the time of the economic cycle, as per all past cycles, that governments use fiscal policy tools and let the banks and central banks earn in the 2nd half of a big bull market when the monetary tools are supposed to tighten and private sector is warm though not fever hot. Second half is where majority gains are made (Banks and Central Banks receding from monetary tools and all other entities within the GDP formula of C+I+G+X-M take over). Monetary tools slowly withdraw, fiscal tools take over. This is how it all works at mid-stage cycles. Bear market? Not a single chance. The increased application of fiscal tools is where walls of worries can always still be there (characteristics of bull market) and where Treasuries and Plunge Protection Team's working mechanism have safety and guaranteed profits for the future.

Bear market also will not take place when monetary tools are withdrawn, fiscal tools withdrawn, private sector is in gear 1 to gear 4 of a 5-gear engine. It slowly creeps in only when there is no monetary policy clutch, no fiscal policy clutch, and private sector by itself is combusting at full gear 5 of a 5-gear engine, and running real hot. By then, central banks' balance sheets would have been shrinked, bright and ready to save the world again. Recession, Market Crisis and Bear market then will be allowed to rear its head.

As reiterated, this expansionary economic UP-cycle is a 【TIDE】-- It cannot be stopped. The Federal Reserve's large balance sheet also needs another 2 more extremely large upwave before it can be shrinked effectively and efficiently. Markets are not allowed to tank or go into bear market, otherwise even the Federal Reserve will be in trouble. And no casino operator since time immemorial goes into trouble, especially the FED. 

Friday, 21 December 2018

Logarithmic Chart of DJIA: 21 December 2018, Friday

Logarithmic Chart of DJIA: 21 December 2018, Friday

Attached is the Logarithmic Chart of DJIA. The shaded regions are recession years. If you apply a pattern recognition of the shaded regions, in the past 100 years till now, it is getting harder and harder to get into recession. Australia is the classic example of such an expansionary phase. As too many people are pointing to breakdown charts, please allow me to post some breakup charts. The DJIA has previously broken up the super-resistance as indicated. Investors of stock market need not be overly panic. Remain calm and composed, like Warren Buffett. There is a reason why Buffett scooped up bank stocks some time ago and Apple Stocks a few months ago. In all my triangulation of all asset classes, Buffett is 100% correct.

Japanese Nikkei 225: 21 December 201, Friday, 11.10am Singapore Time

Nikkei 225: 21 December 201, Friday, 11.10am Singapore Time

Attached is the technicals of Japanese Nikkei 225 going in sync with worldwide financial markets. Nikkei 225 represents an example of some of the weakest market in secular cycle perspective. Even the weakest economy had also broken up super-cycle resistance trend band in double black. Further to that, Nikkei also backtested the supercycle resistance as the new supercycle support (double black lines). Currently Nikkei is backtesting an invisible resistance-turned-support in grey (refer to the double grey lines). Super-Cycle Bull Markets worldwide had been confirmed in 2016-2017. Global weakness in 2018 does not derail the SuperCycle Bull. Expect worldwide governments' fiscal policies to take over monetary tools, and stimulate the bull markets in 2019-2020.

Wednesday, 12 December 2018

Updated Straits Times Index Analysis (Global Rally Coming): 12 December 2018, Wednesday, 9.29am Singapore Time

Updated Straits Times Index Analysis (Global Rally Coming): 
12 December 2018, Wednesday, 9.29am Singapore Time
(Click on Technical Chart above to Expand)

Attached above is the Monthly Technicals of FTSE Singapore Straits Times Index (FTSE STI). If you had been learning from my teachings all along, you will know that Singapore FTSE STI is the number 1 indicator for global economic health and worldwide financial markets. The reasons had been explained in my previous FTSE STI teachings. STI is maintained in strong uptrend supported by the 2 black trend lines. The worst of the "trade war" (initial salvos are often the worst) is almost over, and the STI has not fallen much. Each time the black line supports are touched, a major global rally, including STI, follows. We are at that point now. There is also a  2-month higher low higher high created now -- candle formed such that majority of the herd remains bearish. We are ready for major significant widespread rally in 2019-2020.

Straits Times Index is expected to rally beyond 5000 points in the next few years. 5000 points is a minimum estimation (conservative estimation), as 6000 points is a possible target. Many worldwide blue chips, big caps, bank stocks, and index stocks are expected to make 2x gains from here -- meaning even elephants will gain twice their weight to become fat elephants.

Tuesday, 11 December 2018

Technical Analysis of Twitter Inc (NYSE: TWTR): 11 December 2018, Tuesday, 10.18pm Singapore Time

Technical Analysis of Twitter Inc (NYSE: TWTR): 
11 December 2018, Tuesday, 10.18pm Singapore Time
(Click on Technical Chart above to Expand)

Attached is the Technicals for Twitter Inc (NYSE: TWTR). On 1 April 2018, I first published a buy analysis on Twitter when it was $29.00. I used funds flow analysis on Twitter back then. It has risen to $33.43. The profits from this longs is set to further explode upwards from here. Twitter is a stock which is immune to trade wars, which makes it one of the best buy out there in times of uncertainty. This is made even more attractive when US President likes to sensationalize whatever he does and uses Twitter as his tool. This makes Twitter a strong uptrend as long as Donald Trump is president. Twitter is a 99.999% money-spinning tree in one's portfolio. Technicals as illustrated in detail on chart. Expect the high of the entire chart to break upwards.

Previous Analysis:

Tuesday, 4 December 2018

ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (NYSE: MJ): 4 December 2018, Tuesday, 5.25pm Singapore Time

ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (NYSE: MJ): 
4 December 2018, Tuesday, 5.25pm Singapore Time
(Click on Technical Chart above to Expand)

Attached is the Technicals for ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF that is listed in the NYSE. The ETF is correlated to the Prime Alternative Harvest Index that tracks companies which are Marijuana related. In essence, it is a Marijuana industry-related ETF, and is almost totally independent of any trade war effect (more risk-free but very high beta industry). The Marijuana industry is on both the powerful black up-channel and the more accelerated orange up-channel. The uptrend is strong. The volume flow as circled in blue (Blue Circled Region) shows that small retailers are the ones selling and big players and smart monies are the ones persistently buying. This means the uptrend has strong legs. Expect the Marijuana stocks to be in play again soon. 

The Donovan Norfolk Technical Rating: