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Thursday, 7 November 2013

Funds Flow Analysis (FFA): 7 November 2013, Thursday, 5.15pm Singapore Time

Current Latest Computed Funds Flow Analysis (FFA):
For Worldwide Financial Markets:
7 November 2013, Thursday, 5.15pm Singapore Time
The Donovan Norfolk Ang Funds Flow Analysis Indicator 
for Worldwide Financial Markets 
7 November 2013, Thursday

Broad Markets / Big Markets / Big Wind Directions

European markets are in the first 1 hour 15 minutes of trading, while US markets (Dow, S&P500 and NASDAQ) are 5 hours 15 minutes away from the opening bell. 

Based on current latest computational results, Holdings Index Strength of Big Hands changed from -3.745 to -4.512 in strength on the Donovan Norfolk Funds Flow Index OscillatorOn the other front, Big Hands' Puts holdings on hand changed from -5.097 to -5.592 in strength on the Donovan Norfolk Funds Flow Index Oscillator. 

Broad/Big Market (Big Wind Direction) Short-Term / Mid-Term Posture by Big Hands:

+ I warned yesterday night (Singapore time) in my Facebook Wall that despite any overnight US attempt to rally, Asia and Europe will proceed to sell down: this move to kill naive traders/market participants was executed today.
+ In essence, the continued sell-down came per expected today despite yesterday that US tried to do a rally.
+ Markets will ignore anything good, be it on the news side, fundamental side or technical side, as long as Big Hands are Shorts with Puts.
+ Big Hands continue to execute sells for the 5th consecutive trading day (since last Friday) while holding bloated amount of PUTS (something brewing short term and for which one has to be cautious of).
+ Big Hands are dual sells today.
+ Big Hands' Puts since last week are now in the money (i.e. currently in profits).
+ Big Hands' Short-Term Shorts in Holdings have now become shorts of some strength
+ Majority of Big Hands' Bearish PUTS are still held in place
+ Not only majority of Bearish Puts are held in place, Big Hands carried on piling up Puts today.
+ Big Hands' persistence in Puts (refer to chart above) coupled with switch to shorts are now showing signs of intentions: Short-Term Correction brewing VERY strong.
+ Market-Movers are still looking to execute short term sell-down on indices, index stocks, big cap stocks and mid cap stocks worldwide as per reiterated last week (Note: penny stocks and small caps do not need to respond to index/big market corrections).
Short-term Corrections are expected to be executed with more impulse; however, do bear in mind that mid-term worldwide market outlook is still upwave-biased despite this anticipated short term sell-down with potential force.

Somebody was lost today so this was my reply in terms of an analogy, also adapted from my Facebook Wall Wisdom:

"let's say markets move up 4 months by 10,000 metres, corrects down 2 months short-term by 5,000 metres, and then rallies another 10,000 metres using another 4months. In this 10 months mid-term, it has moved up 15,000metres with 5,000 metres of noise. Yet, if one runs long at the 9,999th metre upmove mark, one will get whipsawed nastily at the opposite direction by a healthy 5001 metres correctional rest; even though one is correct, one can still get smoked and confused by the noises which is what is happening now. This is how financial markets operate: when everyone sees a trend, everyone will tossed in am abrupt vertigo, so that they see wrongly even though they may be right."

+ The following are the short term sell-down correction targets as per reiterated since last week:

(you might like to refer to the accompanying detailed analysis links below too):

1. Malaysian FKLI: 1,790 points and a whipsaw just below 1790 points.(refer: http://donovan-ang.blogspot.sg/2013/10/fkli-index-25-october-2013-1215pm.html
2. Hong Kong Hang Seng Index: 22,000 points and 22,770 points (http://donovan-ang.blogspot.sg/2013/11/hang-seng-index-6-november-2013.html)
3. UK FTSE100: 6500-6550 points.
4. European Euro STOXX50: 2804 points.
5. US NASDAQ Composite: 3700 points.
8. GBPUSD (BritishPound-USD): 1.59000 as 1st target and 1.57000-1.57500 as 2nd target
9. NZDUSD (NewZealandDollar-USD): 0.81000
9. AUD, NZD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD, CHF will generally be weak until the corrections end. 

+ FFA Litmus Test Results:
Short-term corrections are expected to be executed with more force now in International financial markets worldwide: Stocks, Equities, Indices, Commodities, Forex: EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, CANADIAN DOLLAR CAD, SWISS FRANC CHF AND JAPANESE YEN JPY, Gold, Silver, Crude Palm Oil and Crude Oil. These are, however, still within a mid-term relief rally bounce and any short term corrections are to be judged as healthy retracements within the larger mid-term upwaves.

+ Below are the much larger mid-term upwave targets that still hold:

+ Financial Markets, Commodities Markets, Oil, Gold, Silver and Forex markets (EURUSD, GBPUSD, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, Canadian Dollar, AUDUSD, NZDUSD) are still expected to have some more upside against the US Dollar, and this upside is expected to be healthy until I turn big reversal.

+ Expectations are still unchanged: FCPO 3000RM as target, Gold $1500-$1550 as first target and $1750-$1800 as second target, Silver $30.000 as target, Golden Agri (Palm Oil Stock) S$0.60 as 1st target and S$0.74 as 2nd target, AUDUSD $0.96 as first target and $1.00 parity as 2nd target, USDJPY ¥83.54-¥84.00 as final target, India CNX Nifty Index 6188-6320 as up-move target and break-out of 6320 points for uncharted rally as second target, and Oil $118.00-$120.00 as tentative target, FKLI 1900 points as target, or until I turn big reversal.

+ Special Note: 
Each of the respective asset class markets (Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Palm Oil, Commodities, Forex, Stocks and Worldwide Stock Market Indices) have moved in my directions since.

+ So far, only Indian Nifty Index, AUDUSD has hit initial targets as above listed. 
+ More upsides in worldwide financial markets (Stocks, Equities, Indices, Commodities, Forex: EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, CANADIAN DOLLAR CAD, SWISS FRANC CHF AND JAPANESE YEN JPY, Gold, Silver, Crude Palm Oil and Crude Oil)  are still expected after this short term correction selldown (refer past analyses).
+ Japan's QE effects are wearing out, Nikkei-225 may become the weakest link of international financial markets when the rising tide ends.

Broad/Big Market (Big Wind Direction) Long Term Outlook by Big Hands:

All Markets are currently attempting to negate long term bear structures.
The depth of this anticipated short term sell-down will reveal clearer skies and whether previous long term outlook still hold.

Donovan Big Hands Funds Flow Computational Oscillator

Donovan's Funds Flow Analysis Index Oscillator:
-10 ----- 0 ------+10
Donovan's Funds Flow Analysis Strength-Index Scale Key:
negative (-ve) = shorting;
positive (+ve) = longing;
0: No shorts and no longs (direction-less)
1-2: Weak strength / weak holdings
3-4: Moderate strength / moderate holdings
5-6: Strong strength / high holdings
7-8:Very strong strength / very high holdings
9-10:: Rally Mode in store if +ve / Plunging Mode in store if -ve

Implication of Broad Markets/Big Markets/Big Wind Indices Directions
If it is a rising tide in Index Big Wind, most or almost all stock boats generally rise;
If it is a receding tide in Index Big Wind, most or almost all stock boats generally go lower.
Hence the importance of Big Wind Directions blown by Big Hands.

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