Ticker 1

Ticker 2

Click "Like" to Receive First Hand Updates From The Analysis Site / Click "SHARE" to share

Friday, 1 November 2013

Funds Flow Analysis (FFA): 1 November 2013, Friday, 4.20pm Singapore Time



Current Latest Computed Funds Flow Analysis (FFA):
For Worldwide Financial Markets:
1 November 2013, Friday, 4.20pm Singapore Time
The Donovan Norfolk Ang Funds Flow Analysis Indicator 
for Worldwide Financial Markets 
1 November 2013, Friday


Broad Markets / Big Markets / Big Wind Directions

European markets are in the first 20 minutes of trading, while US markets (Dow, S&P500 and NASDAQ) are 6 hours 10 minutes away from the opening bell. 

Based on current latest computational results, Holdings Index Strength of Big Hands changed from +7.419 to +3.213 in strength on the Donovan Norfolk Funds Flow Index OscillatorOn the other front, Big Hands' Puts holdings on hand changed from -2.918 to -3.649 in strength on the Donovan Norfolk Funds Flow Index Oscillator. 

Broad/Big Market (Big Wind Direction) Short-Term / Mid-Term Posture by Big Hands:

+ Big Hands were large dual-longs since 3 days ago.
+ For today, Big Hands are dual sells: Reduce some Longs and increase in Puts.
+ Smart Money used immediate term correction to spike up Puts Holdings' prices while concurrently Longs in the financial markets.
+ This simultaneous action creates noise/confusion and facilitates for re-accumulations while profiting from puts.
+ Big Hands are not shorting the markets despite consolidations, they are merely holding puts as short term downside-selling protections.
+ For today, Big Hands are consolidating their longs while increasing puts as protections.
+ Market-Movers are cautiously bullish-biased in outlook for the mid-term.

+ Overall Funds Actions Structure:  November-December Rally is expected, with Mid-Term large upwave since September still in the midst of execution; all Short-Term corrections are occurring within a very strong Mid-Term Upwave Rally, so if one is shorting, it is considered a Mid-Term Counter-FFA trade. Counter-FFA have high risks when one is wrong.
+ Any immediate-term corrections are to be taken as subsets of healthy and larger mid-term upwave movements, as per reiterated during end-August/early-September warning of a large wave relief rally when everyone were selling on US Government Shutdown while Big Hands bought up cheaply.

+ Posture: BULLISH-BIASED mid-term wave to last till Christmas in current estimation. 
+ Investors/Bulls could re-accumulate buys on dips for the larger mid-term rallies per reiterated since eng-August and early-September.

+ As the Puts keep on increasing, short-term corrections within the larger mid-term updrives could be in place now. The following are the short term correction targets as per reiterated previously:


+ Below are shallow short-term correction targets of any correction, if it comes, so that the rally can go even higher:
1. Malaysian FKLI: 1,790 points and a whipsaw just below 1790 points.(refer: http://donovan-ang.blogspot.sg/2013/10/fkli-index-25-october-2013-1215pm.html
2. Hong Kong Hang Seng Index: 22,000 points and 22,770 points. (refer: http://donovan-ang.blogspot.sg/2013/10/hang-seng-index-intraday-25-october.html)
3. UK FTSE100: 6500-6550 points.
4. European Euro STOXX50: 2804 points.
5. US NASDAQ Composite: 3700 points.
6. Germany DAX: 8700-8750 points. (refer: http://donovan-ang.blogspot.sg/2013/10/dax-index-25-may-2013-friday-548pm.html)
7. EURUSD (Euro-USD): 1.34000
8. GBPUSD (BritishPound-USD): 1.57000-1.57500
9. NZDUSD (NewZealandDollar-USD): 0.81000
9. AUD, NZD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD, CHF will generally be weak until the corrections end. 

+ However, note that the short-term corrections are expected to be shallow and are to be taken as healthy ones. Shorting can still be profitable but reward-risk ratio may not be good compared to buying-on-dip.

+ FFA Litmus Test Results:
International financial markets worldwide (Stocks, Equities, Indices, Commodities, Forex: EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, CANADIAN DOLLAR CAD, SWISS FRANC CHF AND JAPANESE YEN JPY, Gold, Silver, Crude Palm Oil and Crude Oil) are still within a mid-term relief rally bounce and any short term corrections could be expected until the above targets are met. These short term corrections are to be judged as healthy retracements within larger mid-term upwaves.

+ Below are the much larger mid-term upwave targets that still hold:

+ Financial Markets, Commodities Markets, Oil, Gold, Silver and Forex markets (EURUSD, GBPUSD, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, Canadian Dollar, AUDUSD, NZDUSD) are still expected to have some more upside against the US Dollar, and this upside is expected to be healthy until I turn big reversal.

+ Expectations are still unchanged: FCPO 3000RM as target, Gold $1500-$1550 as first target and $1750-$1800 as second target, Silver $30.000 as target, Golden Agri (Palm Oil Stock) S$0.60 as 1st target and S$0.74 as 2nd target, AUDUSD $0.96 as first target and $1.00 parity as 2nd target, USDJPY ¥83.54-¥84.00 as final target, India CNX Nifty Index 6188-6320 as up-move target and break-out of 6320 points for uncharted rally as second target, and Oil $118.00-$120.00 as tentative target, FKLI 1900 points as target, or until I turn reversal.

+ And the ULTIMATE BIG TARGET: Stocks Worldwide and across the international boards to rally on every overbought and on top of public disbelief. 

+ Emerging Markets, ASEAN markets, Asia Markets and Peripheral European Markets are expected to outperform: Risk-on Rallies worldwide still expected together with Gold, Silver and Commodities, and will continue up-move until I turn reversal.

+ Special Note: 
The respective asset class markets (Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Palm Oil, Commodities, Forex, Stocks and Worldwide Stock Market Indices) have moved in my directions since.

+ So far, only India SGX/CNX Nifty Index, AUDUSD has hit initial targets as above listed. 
+ More upsides in worldwide financial markets (Stocks, Equities, Indices, Commodities, Forex: EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, CANADIAN DOLLAR CAD, SWISS FRANC CHF AND JAPANESE YEN JPY, Gold, Silver, Crude Palm Oil and Crude Oil)  are still expected (refer past analyses).
+ Japan's QE effects are wearing out, Nikkei-225 may become the weakest link of international financial markets when the rising tide ends.

Broad/Big Market (Big Wind Direction) Long Term Outlook by Big Hands:

+ Weak markets (e.g. Philippines, India, Korea etc) had entered into Bear Market Zones at high points previously.
+ Strong markets (e.g. US, Singapore, Germany, etc) had held on to critical supports temporarily and will attempt to bounce off these critical supports; these critical supports will get tested repeatedly (their critical supports are still being tested currently).
+ US markets (DJIA, S&P500 and NASDAQ) will go on to make all time new highs while all other markets are still in support-turned-resistance testing modes.
+ Rebounds of emerging economies will merely be dead cat bounces.

In essence, there will be 3 groups of BIG MARKET MOVEMENTS from now:

1st Group (Weak Markets): 

Weak markets such as Korea KOSPI , Philippines, Indonesia, Spain IBEX etc.
These markets already broke down critical supports which denote initial bear market stage; these will do dead cat bouncing back-tests (falling knife dead cat rebounds). 
Sell on rebounds.

2nd group (Mid-strength Markets): 

Singapore STI, Hong Kong HSI, UK FTSE100, France CAC, Italy MIB, Spain etc
These markets will rebound off critical supports now (STI 2925-3065 pts, HSI 19000-19500 pts, FTSE-UK 5900-6000 pts as analysed previously), with no breakdowns yet. Refer to all past technical analyses.
Ride, observe and be cautiously ready to sell.

3rd grp (Strong Markets): 

US Markets of S&P500, DJIA and NASDAQ, German DAX as well as Malaysian KLCI
These markets may hover at all time new highs and throw a big array of confusions to traders, investors and analysts. While US hover around all time new highs, weak markets' rebounds will confirm bear market and mid-strength markets may transit to bear market phase in this rebound.
Ride and observe and be cautious.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Donovan Big Hands Funds Flow Computational Oscillator
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Donovan's Funds Flow Analysis Index Oscillator:
-10 ----- 0 ------+10
Donovan's Funds Flow Analysis Strength-Index Scale Key:
negative (-ve) = shorting;
positive (+ve) = longing;
0: No shorts and no longs (direction-less)
1-2: Weak strength / weak holdings
3-4: Moderate strength / moderate holdings
5-6: Strong strength / high holdings
7-8:Very strong strength / very high holdings
9-10:: Rally Mode in store if +ve / Plunging Mode in store if -ve

Implication of Broad Markets/Big Markets/Big Wind Indices Directions
If it is a rising tide in Index Big Wind, most or almost all stock boats generally rise;
If it is a receding tide in Index Big Wind, most or almost all stock boats generally go lower.
Hence the importance of Big Wind Directions blown by Big Hands.



No comments:

Post a comment