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Wednesday, 9 October 2013

Funds Flow Analysis (FFA): 9 October 2013, Wednesday, 2.45 pm Singapore Time



Current Latest Computed Funds Flow Analysis (FFA):
For Worldwide Financial Markets:
9 October 2013, Wednesday, 2.45 pm Singapore Time

The Donovan Norfolk Ang Funds Flow Analysis Indicator 
for Worldwide Financial Markets 
9 October 2013 Wednesday

Broad Markets / Big Markets / Big Wind Directions

European markets are 15 minutes away from opening for trading, while US markets (Dow, S&P500 and NASDAQ) are 6 hours 45 minutes away from opening. 

Based on current latest computational results, Holdings Index Strength of Big Hands changed from +2.975 to +3.181 in strength on the Donovan Norfolk Funds Flow Index OscillatorOn the other front, Big Hands' Puts holdings on hand changed from -1.370 to -2.038 in strength on the Donovan Norfolk Funds Flow Index Oscillator. 

Broad/Big Market (Big Wind Direction) Immediate-Term/Short-Term Posture by Big Hands:

+ Big Hands not only hold on to main holdings of Longs, but added slight Longs again today despite overnight US Market bearishness.
+ Big Hands increased some Puts for protections today.
+ Overall: Bullishness with cautions.
+ Per highlighted previously, 8 days ago was the start of worldwide retailer longs trampling on retailer longs in the broad markets for the exit (i.e. small fishes selling cheap to get out on panic) while the Smart Money shook out these weak holders and lured retailer shortists to come in to short on US Government Shutdown.
+ Many market participants have shorted/sold on US Government Shutdown and US Default, avoid being on the same bearish side as this naive large herd.
+ Big Hands are persistently NO-SHORTS despite the relentless out pour of bad news inundating the worldwide financial markets.
+ Big Hands have painstakingly taken 3 weeks to set up traps for annexing all rampant shorts out there.
+ Big Hands still refuse to short despite the slew of nasty news, just some cheap puts protections.
+ Markets are still bullish-biased in my judgement, and any selling is a buy-on-dip for the relief rally wave worldwide.
+ Per warned the past 3 weeks, smoke screen had been created successfully to lure shortists to short the markets, and to throw confusion to general market buyers and market participants out there.
+ Per maintained, worldwide market rallies are still expected to continue for mid term until all my up-wave targets are hit.
+ Previously the worldwide rallies were judged by me to be merely short-term and for shorting purposes; however, the worldwide rallies have, since 2 weeks ago, changed in nature to one of a large mid term up-move nature, essentially one which has some more upside. 
+ Per maintained, the persistent immediate term shallow consolidation of the past 2 weeks will make this large up-wave dead cat bounce a longer lasting and larger magnitude one.
+ Worldwide International Financial Markets are still inherently Bullish-Biased, especially Asia (Emerging Markets in particular) and Europe (Peripherals in particular); the bias is one of risk on.

+ Financial Markets, Commodities Markets, Gold, Silver and Forex markets (AUD, EUR, CAD, GBP, NZD, CHF etc) are still expected to have some more upside against USD, and this upside is expected to be healthy until I turn reversal.

+ Expectations are still unchanged: FCPO 3000RM as target, Gold $1500-$1550 as first target and $1750-$1800 as second target, Silver $30.00 as target, Golden Agri (Palm Oil Stock) S$0.60 as 1st target and S$0.74 as 2nd target, AUDUSD $0.96 as first target and $1.00 parity as 2nd target, USDJPY ¥83.54-¥84.00 as final target, India CNX Nifty Index 6188-6320 as up-move target.

+ And the ULTIMATE BIG TARGETStocks Worldwide and across the international boards to rally on every overbought and on top of public disbelief. 

+ Emerging Markets and Peripheral European Markets are expected to outperform: Risk on Rallies worldwide still expected together with Gold, Silver and Commodities.



Summary as below:
* Rally expected in Crude Palm Oil, Crude Palm Oil stocks, Commodities, Gold, Silver.
* Corn will rebound to the targets for shorting as per mentioned previously: http://donovan-ang.blogspot.sg/search/label/Corn
* Strength still expected in AUDUSD.
* Strength still expected in EURUSD.
USDJPY expected to be bearish.
* Technical Rebounds expected in weak currencies such as Ringgit, Rupiah, SGD, Philippines Peso, Indian Rupee, Korean Won, HKD, Thai Baht, Russian Ruble, Middle-East currencies and currencies that were hammered in August 2013.
Canadian Dollar, Brazilian Real and Australian Dollar make good buy-on-dips.
* World Markets to continue pushing up for Technical Rebounds when everyone is shorting and judging that we are at peak currently.

+ All major indices worldwide will continue to rally until I turn bearish.
+ This super rally will burn all LATE SHORTS out there who to tried to beat the markets in judging that markets were toppish, peakish or bearish on a series of bad news line-ups (War, Government Shut-down, Poor economic data, Debt Ceiling Failure).

Broad/Big Market (Big Wind Direction) Long Term Outlook by Big Hands:

+ Weak markets (e.g. Philippines, India, Korea etc) had entered into Bear Market Zones at high points previously.
+ Strong markets (e.g. US, Singapore, Germany, etc) had held on to critical supports temporarily and will attempt to bounce off these critical supports; these critical supports will get tested repeatedly (their critical supports are still being tested currently).
+ US markets (DJIA, S&P500 and NASDAQ) will go on to make all time new highs while all other markets are still in support-turned-resistance testing modes.
+ Rebounds of emerging economies will merely be dead cat bounces.

In essence, there will be 3 groups of BIG MARKET MOVEMENTS from now:

1st Group (Weak Markets): 

Weak markets such as Korea KOSPI , Philippines, Indonesia, Spain IBEX etc.
These markets already broke down critical supports which denote initial bear market stage; these will do dead cat bouncing back-tests (falling knife dead cat rebounds). 
Sell on rebounds.

2nd group (Mid-strength Markets): 

Singapore STI, Hong Kong HSI, UK FTSE100, France CAC, Italy MIB, Spain etc
These markets will rebound off critical supports now (STI 2925-3065 pts, HSI 19000-19500 pts, FTSE-UK 5900-6000 pts as analysed previously), with no breakdowns yet. Refer to all past technical analyses.
Ride, observe and be cautiously ready to sell.

3rd grp (Strong Markets): 

US Markets of S&P500, DJIA and NASDAQ, German DAX as well as Malaysian KLCI
These markets may hover at all time new highs and throw a big array of confusions to traders, investors and analysts. While US hover around all time new highs, weak markets' rebounds will confirm bear market and mid-strength markets may transit to bear market phase in this rebound.
Ride and observe and be cautious.

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Donovan Big Hands Funds Flow Computational Oscillator
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Donovan's Funds Flow Analysis Index Oscillator:
-10 ----- 0 ------+10
Donovan's Funds Flow Analysis Strength-Index Scale Key:
negative (-ve) = shorting;
positive (+ve) = longing;
0: No shorts and no longs (direction-less)
1-2: Weak strength / weak holdings
3-4: Moderate strength / moderate holdings
5-6: Strong strength / high holdings
7-8:Very strong strength / very high holdings
9-10:: Rally Mode in store if +ve / Plunging Mode in store if -ve

Implication of Broad Markets/Big Markets/Big Wind Indices Directions
If it is a rising tide in Index Big Wind, most or almost all stock boats generally rise;
If it is a receding tide in Index Big Wind, most or almost all stock boats generally go lower.
Hence the importance of Big Wind Directions blown by Big Hands.



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