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Wednesday, 23 October 2013

Funds Flow Analysis (FFA): 23 October 2013, Wednesday, 5.30pm Singapore Time



Current Latest Computed Funds Flow Analysis (FFA):
For Worldwide Financial Markets:
23 October 2013, Wednesday, 5.30pm Singapore Time


The Donovan Norfolk Ang Funds Flow Analysis Indicator 
for Worldwide Financial Markets 
23 October 2013, Wednesday


Broad Markets / Big Markets / Big Wind Directions

European markets are in the first 2.5 hours of trading, while US markets (Dow, S&P500 and NASDAQ) are 4 hours 00 minutes away from opening for trading. 

Based on current latest computational results, Holdings Index Strength of Big Hands changed from +1.571 to -2.325 in strength on the Donovan Norfolk Funds Flow Index OscillatorOn the other front, Big Hands' Puts holdings on hand changed from -1.186 to -2.682 in strength on the Donovan Norfolk Funds Flow Index Oscillator. 

Broad/Big Market (Big Wind Direction) Immediate-Term/Short-Term Posture by Big Hands:

+ Big Hands are even larger sells today.
+ Big Hands have for yet another time flipped from longs to shorts now. 
+ Big Hands have persistently held puts.
+ Big Hands increased puts holdings today.
+ Dual Sells today by Big Hands: Addition of Puts and Shorts.
+ Up-drive rally's immediate-term to short-term correction may be here. (Creation of shake-outs against not only weak retailer longs holders but late retailer longs as well).
+ International financial markets worldwide (Stocks, Equities, Indices, Commodities, Forex: EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, CANADIAN DOLLAR CAD, SWISS FRANC CHF AND JAPANESE YEN JPY, Gold, Silver, Crude Palm Oil and Crude Oil) may now have a short term correction of 1-2 weeks within a mid-term large dead cat bounce of a few months.
+ The mid-term relief rally needs a short term rest now as of current Totality Analysis Judgement (TA, FFA, IMA).
+ Note: All previous mid-term rebound targets still remains as of current Totality Analysis Judgement (TA, FFA, IMA).
+ I would now take profits of one-third of each of my longs holdings on hand (i.e. unload one-third of all longs holdings on hand for realized profits) and still hold all my USDJPY Shorts (let my profits for USDJPY Shorts run for more).
+ Risk management should be put in place now as above, and aggressive plays should not be encouraged now.

+ Below are mid-term targets that still hold:

+ Financial Markets, Commodities Markets, Oil, Gold, Silver and Forex markets (AUD, EUR, CAD, GBP, NZD, CHF etc) are still expected to have some more upside against the US Dollar, and this upside is expected to be healthy until I turn reversal.

+ Expectations are still unchanged: FCPO 3000RM as target, Gold $1500-$1550 as first target and $1750-$1800 as second target, Silver $30.00 as target, Golden Agri (Palm Oil Stock) S$0.60 as 1st target and S$0.74 as 2nd target, AUDUSD $0.96 as first target and $1.00 parity as 2nd target, USDJPY ¥83.54-¥84.00 as final target, India CNX Nifty Index 6188-6320 as up-move target, and Oil $118.00-$120.00 as tentative target, or until I turn reversal.

+ And the ULTIMATE BIG TARGET: Stocks Worldwide and across the international boards to rally on every overbought and on top of public disbelief. 

+ Emerging Markets, Asia and Peripheral European Markets are expected to outperform: Risk-on Rallies worldwide still expected together with Gold, Silver and Commodities, and will continue up-move until I turn reversal.

+ Note: 
The respective asset class' markets (Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Palm Oil, Commodities, Forex, Stocks and Worldwide Stock Market Indices) have moved in my directions since.

+ So far, only India SGX/CNX Nifty Index, AUDUSD has hit target as above listed.
+ Japan's QE effects are wearing out, Nikkei-225 may become the weakest link of international financial markets when the rising tide ends.

Broad/Big Market (Big Wind Direction) Long Term Outlook by Big Hands:

+ Weak markets (e.g. Philippines, India, Korea etc) had entered into Bear Market Zones at high points previously.
+ Strong markets (e.g. US, Singapore, Germany, etc) had held on to critical supports temporarily and will attempt to bounce off these critical supports; these critical supports will get tested repeatedly (their critical supports are still being tested currently).
+ US markets (DJIA, S&P500 and NASDAQ) will go on to make all time new highs while all other markets are still in support-turned-resistance testing modes.
+ Rebounds of emerging economies will merely be dead cat bounces.

In essence, there will be 3 groups of BIG MARKET MOVEMENTS from now:

1st Group (Weak Markets): 

Weak markets such as Korea KOSPI , Philippines, Indonesia, Spain IBEX etc.
These markets already broke down critical supports which denote initial bear market stage; these will do dead cat bouncing back-tests (falling knife dead cat rebounds). 
Sell on rebounds.

2nd group (Mid-strength Markets): 

Singapore STI, Hong Kong HSI, UK FTSE100, France CAC, Italy MIB, Spain etc
These markets will rebound off critical supports now (STI 2925-3065 pts, HSI 19000-19500 pts, FTSE-UK 5900-6000 pts as analysed previously), with no breakdowns yet. Refer to all past technical analyses.
Ride, observe and be cautiously ready to sell.

3rd grp (Strong Markets): 

US Markets of S&P500, DJIA and NASDAQ, German DAX as well as Malaysian KLCI
These markets may hover at all time new highs and throw a big array of confusions to traders, investors and analysts. While US hover around all time new highs, weak markets' rebounds will confirm bear market and mid-strength markets may transit to bear market phase in this rebound.
Ride and observe and be cautious.

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Donovan Big Hands Funds Flow Computational Oscillator
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Donovan's Funds Flow Analysis Index Oscillator:
-10 ----- 0 ------+10
Donovan's Funds Flow Analysis Strength-Index Scale Key:
negative (-ve) = shorting;
positive (+ve) = longing;
0: No shorts and no longs (direction-less)
1-2: Weak strength / weak holdings
3-4: Moderate strength / moderate holdings
5-6: Strong strength / high holdings
7-8:Very strong strength / very high holdings
9-10:: Rally Mode in store if +ve / Plunging Mode in store if -ve

Implication of Broad Markets/Big Markets/Big Wind Indices Directions
If it is a rising tide in Index Big Wind, most or almost all stock boats generally rise;
If it is a receding tide in Index Big Wind, most or almost all stock boats generally go lower.
Hence the importance of Big Wind Directions blown by Big Hands.



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