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Tuesday, 17 September 2013

Funds Flow Analysis (FFA): 17 September 2013, Tuesday, 4.59pm Singapore Time



Current Latest Computed Funds Flow Analysis (FFA):
For Worldwide Financial Markets:
17 September 2013, Tuesday, 4.59pm Singapore Time
The Donovan Norfolk Ang Funds Flow Analysis Indicator 
for Worldwide Financial Markets 
17 September 2013 Tuesday


Broad Markets / Big Markets / Big Wind Directions

European markets are in the 2nd hour of trading, while US markets (Dow, S&P500 and NASDAQ) are 4 hours 31 minutes away from opening. 

Based on current latest computational results, Holdings Index Strength of Big Hands changed from +4.332 to +3.272 in strength on the Donovan Norfolk Funds Flow Index OscillatorBig Hands' Puts Holdings changed from -4.825 to -4.571 in strength on the Donovan Norfolk Funds Flow Index Oscillator. 

Broad/Big Market (Big Wind Direction) Immediate-Term/Short-Term Posture by Big Hands:

+ Big Hands holding on to majority of longs and not doing profit takings of their previous buys.
+ Big Hands reducing bearish puts gradually.
+ Overall for today: Big Hands consolidating their Longs/Buys and slowly reducing their puts holdings, still attempting to make this overall switch to longs a progressively healthy one.
+ Note that this switch to longs is becoming healthier and healthier which may make this dead cat bounce rally become a mid-term of at least 1 month and possibly up to 3 months.
+ Markets in consolidation mode, and still bullish-biased.
+ Expect any immediate term and short-term sellings to be shallow, and expect any dead cat bounce technical rebound rally to be powerful. 
Current State: Markets still bullish-biased, as per warned since 31 August 2013, in which Big Hands are on the longs/buying side, with some protections against downside which is gradually reducing now.
+ Big Hands still expecting breakthrough rallies as per warned for the past 2 weeks.
+ Markets are still out to kill, burn, cripple, crumble and wipe out huge amount of retailer/small fishes' shorts out there who had shorted on FED Tapering and Syrian War.

Additional Analysis from Donovan Norfolk Ang as posted on my Facebook Wall:

This first batch of tapering had been priced in 6-9 months ago. 

Tapering news release will merely be something expected and just result in immediate-term shallow fake-selling, only to be followed by short-mid term real buying on relief; this is something like breathing a huge sigh of relief, and this rally is initially because 1st batch of tapering had been overly priced-in previously (by going overly-down in the previously warned sell-downs). 

Any push-ups in international financial markets worldwide is merely a reversion to the mean. From the mean, markets can even further rally to provide an irrationality for shorting opportunities.

From Donovan's Ground-Zero Checks of Market Sentiments, 

MANY PEOPLE ARE STILL THINKING THAT CURRENT REBOUND HAS REACHED THE PEAK OR IS TOPPISH ALREADY, AND THEY ARE SHORTING, SELLING AND SAYING THAT PEAK/TOP HAS ALREADY HIT FOR THIS REBOUND.

WHAT HAPPENS THEN? THERE WILL BE MORE RALLY TO GO. LATE FINANCIAL MARKET SHORTISTS ARE STILL THINKING THAT THEY STILL HAVE HOPE, AND LIVING ON HOPIUM. HENCE MARKETS WILL KILL THEM ALL WITH MORE UNBELIEVABLE RALLIES. 

Note: 

* AUDUSD (Forex), EURUSD (Forex), Commodities, Gold, Silver, Worldwide Stocks, Worldwide Indices and Crude Palm Oil all expected to remain bullish per warned 31 Aug 2013. 
* USDJPY expected to be bearish per warned since 31 Aug 2013. 
* No change in stand (refer to my turning point stands since 31 August 2013).


Broad/Big Market (Big Wind Direction) Mid-Long Term Outlook by Big Hands:

+ Weak markets (e.g. Philippines, India, Korea etc) had entered into Bear Market Zones at high points previously.
+ Strong markets (e.g. US, Singapore, Germany, etc) had held on to critical supports temporarily and will attempt to bounce off these critical supports; these critical supports will get tested repeatedly (their critical supports are still being tested currently).
+ US markets (DJIA, S&P500 and NASDAQ) will go on to make all time new highs while all other markets are still in support-turned-resistance testing modes.
+ Rebounds of emerging economies will merely be dead cat bounces.

In essence, there will be 3 groups of BIG MARKET MOVEMENTS from now:

1st Group (Weak Markets): 

Weak markets such as Korea KOSPI , Philippines, Indonesia, Spain IBEX etc.
These markets already broke down critical supports which denote initial bear market stage; these will do dead cat bouncing back-tests (falling knife dead cat rebounds). 
Sell on rebounds.

2nd group (Mid-strength Markets): 

Singapore STI, Hong Kong HSI, UK FTSE100, France CAC, Italy MIB, Spain etc
These markets will rebound off critical supports now (STI 2925-3065 pts, HSI 19000-19500 pts, FTSE-UK 5900-6000 pts as analysed previously), with no breakdowns yet. Refer to all past technical analyses.
Ride, observe and be cautiously ready to sell.

3rd grp (Strong Markets): 

US Markets of S&P500, DJIA and NASDAQ, German DAX as well as Malaysian KLCI
These markets may hover at all time new highs and throw a big array of confusions to traders, investors and analysts. While US hover around all time new highs, weak markets' rebounds will confirm bear market and mid-strength markets may transit to bear market phase in this rebound.
Ride and observe and be cautious.

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Donovan Big Hands Funds Flow Computational Oscillator
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Donovan's Funds Flow Analysis Index Oscillator:
-10 ----- 0 ------+10
Donovan's Funds Flow Analysis Strength-Index Scale Key:
negative (-ve) = shorting;
positive (+ve) = longing;
0: No shorts and no longs (direction-less)
1-2: Weak strength / weak holdings
3-4: Moderate strength / moderate holdings
5-6: Strong strength / high holdings
7-8:Very strong strength / very high holdings
9-10:: Rally Mode in store if +ve / Plunging Mode in store if -ve

Implication of Broad Markets/Big Markets/Big Wind Indices Directions
If it is a rising tide in Index Big Wind, most or almost all stock boats generally rise;
If it is a receding tide in Index Big Wind, most or almost all stock boats generally go lower.
Hence the importance of Big Wind Directions blown by Big Hands.



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