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Wednesday, 7 November 2012

Funds Flow Analysis (FFA): 7 November 2012, Wednesday, 2.22pm Singapore Time


Current Latest Computed Funds Flow Analysis (FFA):

7 November 2012, Wednesday, 2.22pm Singapore Time


The Game of Bluff is getting treacherous

European markets are 1.5 hours away from opening, while US markets are 8 hours away from the Wednesday opening bell. Based on current latest computational results, Holdings index strength of Big Hands changed from -4.119 to -5.239 on the Donovan Funds Flow Index OscillatorBig Hands reversed from slight Puts holdings to slight Calls holdings, with holdings on hand changing from -0.329 to +0.564  on the Donovan Funds Flow Index Oscillator. 


Posture:

+ Piling up of more Shorts (with Bulk of Shorts maintained).
+ No more protection against upside in the short-term
Gradually switching to a more aggressive attacking mode now 
+ Outlook outright bearish in the mid-term without any more upmove-rebound protection
+ Stocks in the Board Markets (Big Caps, Mid-caps and Small caps) had been under Shorts-accumulation set-up in August-October 2012 period, as warned in September and October 2012. 

Meanwhile, Donovan Broad Market Short Term Shorting Intention (1-month look-back window), Donovan-BMSTSI (1-mth), changed from strength index 58.65% to 52.45% (Computation Completed: 7 Oct 2012, 10.12pm Singapore Time).

* Note that Donovan-BMSTSI is also an Oscillator, based on the total amount of shorts in the entire markets; BMSTSI 20 and below means too few shorts (under-short) in the short term broad market and BMSTSI 80 and above means too much shorts (over-short) in the short term broad market. An increase in BMSTSI means broad markets are increasingly being shorted, suggesting bearishness, while a decreasing BMSTSI means covering shorts or lessened shorts. 

Below is the history of broad market shorts by the Smart Money and the most well-informed:

Donovan Broad Market Short Term Shorting Intention (BMSTSI) History:

22/10 BMSTSI = 39.12 (Volatility)
23/10 BMSTSI = 46.98 (Volatility)
24/10 BMSTSI = 34.30 (Volatility)
25/10 BMSTSI = 28.59 
26/10 BMSTSI = SINGAPORE PUBLIC HOLIDAY

29/10 BMSTSI = 33.00 (Short Term Broad Market Shorts Consolidation Ends)
30/10 BMSTSI = 43.00 (Short Term Broad Market Shorts Consolidation Ends)
31/10 BMSTSI = 47.23 (Short Term Broad Market Shorts Consolidation Ends
01/11 BMSTSI = 53.00 
02/11 BMSTSI = 54.11

05/11 BMSTSI = 59.11 
06/11 BMSTSI = 58.65 
07/11 BMSTSI = 52.45


*Note that Donovan-BMSTSI is also an Oscillator, based on the total amount of shorts in the entire markets; BMSTSI 20 and below means too few shorts (under-short) in the short term broad market and BMSTSI 80 and above means too much shorts (over-short) in the short term broad market. An increase in BMSTSI means broad markets are increasingly being shorted, suggesting bearishness, while a decreasing BMSTSI means covering shorts or lessened shorts. 

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Donovan Big Hands Funds Flow Computational Oscillator
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Donovan's Funds Flow Analysis Index Oscillator:
-10 ----- 0 ------+10
Donovan's Funds Flow Analysis Strength-Index Scale Key:
negative (-ve) = shorting;
positive (+ve) = longing;
0: No shorts and no longs (direction-less)
1-2: Weak strength / weak holdings
3-4: Moderate strength / moderate holdings
5-6: Strong strength / high holdings
7-8:Very strong strength / very high holdings
9-10:: Rally Mode in store / Plunging Mode in store

Donovan's Daily Broad Market Short Term Shorting Intention (BMSTSI) Oscillator:
0% -----20-----50-----80-----100%
Donovan's Daily Broad Market Short Term Shorting Intention (BMSTSI) Index Scale Key:
0 to 10: Negligible Broad Market Shorting Activity Today
10 to 20: Very Weak/Little Broad Market Shorting Activity Today
20 to 40: Weak/Little Broad Market Shorting Activity Today
40 to 60: Moderate Broad Market Shorting Activity Today
60 to 80: Strong Broad Market Shorting Activity Today
80 to 90: Very Strong Broad Market Shorting Activity Today
90 to 100: Full or Best Effort Broad Market Shorting Activity Today


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