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Tuesday, 6 November 2012

Funds Flow Analysis (FFA): 6 November 2012, Tuesday, 3.50pm Singapore Time



Current Latest Computed Funds Flow Analysis (FFA):

6 November 2012, Tuesday, 3.50pm Singapore Time


The Game of Bluff is getting treacherous

European markets are about to open, while US markets are 6.5 hours away from the Tuesday opening bell. Based on current latest computational results, Holdings index strength of Big Hands changed from -4.100 to -4.119 on the Donovan Funds Flow Index OscillatorBig Hands reversed from Calls to Puts, holdings on hand changing from +0.147 to -0.329  on the Donovan Funds Flow Index Oscillator. 


Posture:

+ Dual pronged bearish actions
+ Switching to Puts holdings
+ Bulk of Shorts maintained.
+ No more protection against upside in the short-term
+ SHORTS and PUTS held concurrently: Switching to more aggressive attacking mode 
+ Outlook outright bearish in the mid-term without any more upmove-rebound protection
+ Stocks in the Board Markets (Big Caps, Mid-caps and Small caps) had been under Shorts-accumulation set-up in August-October 2012 period, as warned in September and October 2012. 

Meanwhile, Donovan Broad Market Short Term Shorting Intention (1-month look-back window), Donovan-BMSTSI (1-mth), changed from strength index 59.11% to 58.65%.

* Note that Donovan-BMSTSI is also an Oscillator, based on the total amount of shorts in the entire markets; BMSTSI 20 and below means too few shorts (under-short) in the short term broad market and BMSTSI 80 and above means too much shorts (over-short) in the short term broad market. An increase in BMSTSI means broad markets are increasingly being shorted, suggesting bearishness, while a decreasing BMSTSI means covering shorts or lessened shorts. 

Below is the history of broad market shorts by the Smart Money and the most well-informed:

Donovan Broad Market Short Term Shorting Intention (BMSTSI) History:

21/08 BMSTSI = 51.25
22/08 BMSTSI = 45.00
23/08 BMSTSI = 35.00
24/08 BMSTSI = 43.75

27/08 BMSTSI = 40.00
28/08 BMSTSI = 33.75

29/08 BMSTSI = 32.50
30/08 BMSTSI = 40.50
31/08 BMSTSI = 44.25

03/09 BMSTSI = 41.25
04/09 BMSTSI = 51.00
05/09 BMSTSI = 60.25
06/09 BMSTSI = 55.00
07/09 BMSTSI = 37.50

10/09 BMSTSI = 35.92
11/09 BMSTSI = 32.84
12/09 BMSTSI = 26.51
13/09 BMSTSI = 22.51 (FED announced "QE3")
14/09 BMSTSI = 31.93 (BMSTSI increased)

17/09 BMSTSI = 39.68 (BMSTSI increased)
18/09 BMSTSI = 39.86 (BMSTSI increased though rate of increment reduced for 18-Sept)
19/09 BMSTSI = 41.08 (BMSTSI increased)
20/09 BMSTSI = 40.89
21/09 BMSTSI = 41.72 (BMSTSI increased)

24/09 BMSTSI = 43.90 (BMSTSI increased)
25/09 BMSTSI = 47.76 (BMSTSI increased)
26/09 BMSTSI = 52.18 (BMSTSI increased; bearish)
27/09 BMSTSI = 62.19 (BMSTSI increased; bearish)
28/09 BMSTSI = 64.31 (BMSTSI increased; bearish)

01/10 BMSTSI = 64.45 (BMSTSI increased; bearish)
02/10 BMSTSI = 64.53 (BMSTSI increased; bearish)
03/10 BMSTSI = 64.95 (BMSTSI increased; bearish)
04/10 BMSTSI = 64.18 (Consolidation; bearish)
05/10 BMSTSI = 63.41 (Consolidation; bearish)

08/10 BMSTSI = 60.06 (Consolidation at above 50; bearish)
09/10 BMSTSI = 58.39 (Consolidation at above 50; bearish)
10/10 BMSTSI = 59.43 (Consolidation at above 50; bearish)
11/10 BMSTSI = 57.48 (Consolidation at above 50; bearish)
12/10 BMSTSI = 58.25 (Consolidation at above 50; bearish)

15/10 BMSTSI = 57.34 (Consolidation at above 50; bearish confidence shorts by Big Hands)
16/10 BMSTSI = 58.79 (Consolidation at above 50; bearish confidence shorts by Big Hands)
17/10 BMSTSI = 58.26 (Consolidation at above 50; bearish confidence shorts by Big Hands)
18/10 BMSTSI = 56.25 (Consolidation at above 50; bearish confidence shorts by Big Hands)
19/10 BMSTSI = 46.01 (Volatility)

22/10 BMSTSI = 39.12 (Volatility)
23/10 BMSTSI = 46.98 (Volatility)
24/10 BMSTSI = 34.30 (Volatility)
25/10 BMSTSI = 28.59 
26/10 BMSTSI = SINGAPORE PUBLIC HOLIDAY

29/10 BMSTSI = 33.00 (Short Term Broad Market Shorts Consolidation Ends)
30/10 BMSTSI = 43.00 (Short Term Broad Market Shorts Consolidation Ends)
31/10 BMSTSI = 47.23 (Short Term Broad Market Shorts Consolidation Ends
01/11 BMSTSI = 53.00 (Short Term Broad Market Shorts Consolidation Ends)
02/11 BMSTSI = 54.11 (Short Term Broad Market Shorts Consolidation Ends)

05/11 BMSTSI = 59.11 (Short Term Broad Market Shorts Consolidation Ends)
06/11 BMSTSI = 58.65 (Short Term Broad Market Shorts Consolidation Ends)


*Note that Donovan-BMSTSI is also an Oscillator, based on the total amount of shorts in the entire markets; BMSTSI 20 and below means too few shorts (under-short) in the short term broad market and BMSTSI 80 and above means too much shorts (over-short) in the short term broad market. An increase in BMSTSI means broad markets are increasingly being shorted, suggesting bearishness, while a decreasing BMSTSI means covering shorts or lessened shorts. 

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Donovan Big Hands Funds Flow Computational Oscillator
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Donovan's Funds Flow Analysis Index Oscillator:
-10 ----- 0 ------+10
Donovan's Funds Flow Analysis Strength-Index Scale Key:
negative (-ve) = shorting;
positive (+ve) = longing;
0: No shorts and no longs (direction-less)
1-2: Weak strength / weak holdings
3-4: Moderate strength / moderate holdings
5-6: Strong strength / high holdings
7-8:Very strong strength / very high holdings
9-10:: Rally Mode in store / Plunging Mode in store

Donovan's Daily Broad Market Short Term Shorting Intention (BMSTSI) Oscillator:
0% -----20-----50-----80-----100%
Donovan's Daily Broad Market Short Term Shorting Intention (BMSTSI) Index Scale Key:
0 to 10: Negligible Broad Market Shorting Activity Today
10 to 20: Very Weak/Little Broad Market Shorting Activity Today
20 to 40: Weak/Little Broad Market Shorting Activity Today
40 to 60: Moderate Broad Market Shorting Activity Today
60 to 80: Strong Broad Market Shorting Activity Today
80 to 90: Very Strong Broad Market Shorting Activity Today
90 to 100: Full or Best Effort Broad Market Shorting Activity Today


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