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Monday, 25 June 2012

Dow Profits all taken; Facebook partial profits taken

Latest Update:

Dow trailing-sells all auto triggered and profits taken at 12550 and 12540 points at around 6pm (Singapore Time) as per mentioned in the afternoon 2.41pm (Singapore Time) that I will be selling away my longs. Could had earned much more from Dow last week but didn't; but money in the pocket is definitely warm and nice.

Facebook partial profits taken at $32.90. Keeping the rest for the longer term. After locking some profits on Facebook, current holding average holding price for Facebook is $29.05.


SETTLEMENT (today 25 June 2012):

1ST BATCH OF DJIA LONGS:
PROFITS = (12550 - 12520) x 55 mini-contracts x $1 per point =  $1.65k

2ND BATCH OF DJIA LONGS:
PROFITS = (12540 - 12515) x 50 mini-contracts x $1 per point =  $1.25k

FACEBOOK LONGS:
PROFITS = (US$32.90 - US$30.10 AVG) x 10,000 shares =  US$28k 
(Memo: after partial profits taken for Facebook, remaining holding averaged-down price for Facebook$29.05)

Peanut profits from DJIA longs, as it mushroomed to $31.5k within a week plus before down-turning out of my expectations to $2.9k profits. That sums up the volatility of the markets.

Sunday, 24 June 2012

Genting Analysis: 24 June 2012, Sunday, 1.25pm Singapore Time

Genting Analysis

Somebody specially requested for a Genting Analysis (Casino Stock).
So I have put up an in-depth Genting analysis here:


Warning 1: Accelerated pump up to induce greed and facilitate distribution


Warning 2: Escape Waves 1 and Escape Waves 2


Warning 3:  A show-hand of good news cannot bring up the price means you should run for your life


Warning 4: Using dividends to further trap deeply; important support layer breached again


Warning 5: A set-up to kill even the Technical Analysts; a breakdown confirms Warning 1 and Warning 2 and reinforces Warning 3 and Warning 4.


Warning 6: A perspective of stages

The best Genting will carry on from here is to capitalise on bullish divergences to re-capture DARK BLUE trend support and consolidate within the PINK Sideways movement (best case: few months of selling absorption); however there will be numerous layers of resistances looking to sell and get out at the LIGHT BLUE LINE and DARK BLUE LINE as well as at the moving averages that are all sell pressures now. The normal case would be for sellings intended for price push-down to come. The worst case of course need not be explained (High volumes push-down expected to come soon in the short term if Genting cannot go into the "best-case" explained above). 

Any rebound in Genting is a chance to get out if you have longs; it is also a chance to accumulate shorts if Genting rebounds to the regions above mentioned. If Genting breaks down PINK LINE immediately, it is also worthwhile to initiate some shorts.

Genting is bearish-biased in the mid-term and the long-term.

Now, on my personal view of its fundamentals: if one looks at the long term prospects of Genting, one will realise that Genting Malaysia at the Genting Highlands is not attractive anymore, and many of its facilities at the highlands are old as if not undergone much maintenance. Its long term operations in Singapore Sentosa is much dependant on whether the Universal Studio and Sentosa can continue to lure tourists and to have them desiring to come again. Otherwise it will have to depend much on its gambling operations which Las Vegas Sands is a very strong competitor here, not only in terms of attractions but also on location since Marina Bay Sands is of a much more strategic location compared to Sentosa island.

Based on chart, the intentions of the much more research-informed Big Hands are rather clear as per my chart analyses above. 

Wednesday, 20 June 2012

Euro-USD: 20 June 2012, Wednesday, 3.12pm Singapore Time


Euro Chart: Euro-USD: 20 June 2012, Wednesday, 3.12pm Singapore Time

Euro-USD Target: $1.30800
Market has too many Euro shortists at the moment. Next immediate target is 1.28500-1.29000 based on Fibo before retracement down to estimated 1.28000 and upwards thrust to above 1.30000. All Fibo movements. Algorithmic distribution will start to come slowly beyond 1.30000. World major financial markets (FTSE, CAC, DAX, MIB, IBEX, HSI, STI, KOSPI, DJIA, S&P500, NASDAQ) will react in positive correlation to Euro.
Operation: Shortists Clean-up (rally to above $1.30000 ) before the next wave down

Wednesday, 13 June 2012

Euro-USD: 13 June 2012, Wednesday, 10.15pm Singapore Time

Queueing to long Euro against USD at 1.25000, 1.25100, 1.25200 and 1.25300.
Target price:

1st Target: 1.27000-1.27500
2nd Target:1.30816-1.31000

Refer:
http://donovan-ang.blogspot.com/2012/06/11-june-2012-monday-957am-market-update.html

Dow (DJIA) Queue on Longs triggered at 12515 and 12520 points respectively in 2 batches.

China Merchants Holdings: 13 June 2012, Wednesday, 1.30am Singapore Time


Accumulate shorts on China Merchants Holdings (International), Hong Kong listed stock, during market technical rebounds in Asia and Europe.


Tuesday, 12 June 2012

Thursday, 7 June 2012

Funds Flow Analysis (FFA): 7June 2012, Thursday, 6.11pm Singapore Time

Big Hands Strength-index in holdings changed from +7.88 to +7.26, not much change in holdings. Puts on hand are further taken profits of for yet another day for Big Hands, with strength-index on hand changing from  -4.68 to -4.29; this suggests they are still confident of a bad whipsaw selling to the downside for their Puts to profit. Hence they have no hurry to sell off the In-The-Money (ITM) Puts, for which profit taking has been slow. Meanwhile, Big hands2 are still doing rotational index stocks shorts in Asia to suppress index for their coverings in indices. In fact, there is a slight increase in some shorts today for Big Hands2. Hence there is a possibility that tonight or tomorrow night there may be a sell down in US market just to throw confusion smoke bombs to traders.

However, in the short-mid term, these whipsaws will not change the technical rebound for the coming few weeks as the main holdings of Big Hands set up are all intact. Longing on dip for short-mid term technical rebound of 1-2months  is the way to go. However, bear in mind, these are counter-big-trend trades.


Donovan's Funds Flow Analysis
Strength-Index Scale Key:

negative (-ve) = shorting power;
positive (+ve) = longing power;
0:  No shorts and no longs (directionless)
1-2: Weak strength (trying to have a direction)
3-4: Moderate strength (some direction is building up)
5-6: Strong strength (strong attacking directional power is building up)
7-8:Very strong strength (very strong attacking directional power is building up)
9-10::  Rally Mode in store / Plunging Mode in store

Donovan's Funds Flow Analysis Index Oscillator: -10 ----- 0 ------+10

Euro-USD: 7 June 2012, Wednesday, 8.30am Singapore Time

Euro-USD Chart of 7 June 2012, Thursday, 8.17am

Direction has changed with confirmation for the coming 1-2 months for world financial markets (Forex against USD, major Asian, European and US Indices, Commodities and Stocks). Bullish upside attack locked on and intentions confirmed. Too many people shorting Euros, those late shortists will not be able to survive but wiped out in the immediate term.

Looking to long Euros at 1.25000, 1.25050, 1.25100, 1.25150, 1.25200 and 1.25250 with very loose stop loss and to hold for a longer term. Looking to long Commodity Stocks such as Sakari Resources at S$1.25-S$1.28 for technical backtests. Commodity Stocks in Australia, Asia, Europe and US will be whacked up in the next few weeks, including this week.

Euro-USD:
1st Target: 1.27000-1.27500 (Take Half of all longs profits)
2nd Target: 1.30816 (Take remaining profits)

Wednesday, 6 June 2012

Euro-USD: 6 June 2012, Wednesday, 8.05am Singapore Time

Euro-USD: 6 June 2012, Wednesday, 8.05am Singapore Time

Euro-USD Hourly Chart: A Close Up Look


Pretty self-explanatory. Enter into BLACK BOX zone and a messy bi-directional whipsaw for world financial markets to operate for the next few days. Breaking up BLUE & PURPLE resistances and the up-direction is set for the mid term. Breaking down GREEN support and the movement is still trapped inside the RED channel for the short term. 1.25000 area is still the key, while BLACK BOX region is like a black hole for volatility which would be good for big hands if they are looking to ease the process of taking profits of their shorts in financial derivatives, indices and stocks markets. Volatility in Forex markets will induce stocks and indices algorithms to tailgate the volatility in Forex.

However, Euro (against USD) is still looking to reach its 1.30000 objective in the short-mid term before it can carry on its downtrend.

Tuesday, 5 June 2012

Euro-USD: 5 June 2012, Tuesday, 2.47am Singapore Time


NEW EUROS-USD SET-UP (IMMEDIATE TERM/SHORT TERM)

Long Euros if 1.25250 resistance breaks up (Tgt = 1.27500);
else Short Euros if 1.25000 resistance holds and 1.24737 breaks down (Tgt below 1.23000 and constantly variable due to down-channel);
else sideline until either set-up triggers.

Stop-loss Put in as Capital = 50 Pips.

Monday, 4 June 2012

Euro-USD: 4 June 2012, Monday, 11.06pm Singapore Time


LATEST 4 JUNE 2012, MONDAY, 11.06PM:

As per last Friday's execution plan (to take profit of all Euros at 1.25000):
EURO 1.23000 BATCH (Stop-loss at 1.22700), SELLS TRIGGERED AT 1.25000 (10.16PM)
EURO 1.23100 BATCH (Stop-loss at 1.22700), SELLS TRIGGERED AT 1.25000 (10.16PM) 
EURO 1.23200 BATCH (Stop-loss at 1.22700), SELLS TRIGGERED AT 1.24950 (10.58PM) 
EURO 1.23300 BATCH (Stop-loss at 1.22700), SELLS TRIGGERED AT 1.24950 (10.58PM)

SETTLEMENT (today 4 June 2012):

1ST BATCH OF EUROS LONGS:
STOP-LOSS COST (FOR MARGIN) / CAPITAL PUT IN = 30.0 PIPS
PROFITS = 200.0 PIPS
RETURNS = 6.67X (+667% RETURNS ON CAPITAL)

2ND BATCH OF EUROS LONGS:
STOP-LOSS COST (FOR MARGIN) / CAPITAL PUT IN = 40.0 PIPS
PROFITS = 190.0 PIPS
RETURNS = 4.75X (+475% RETURNS ON CAPITAL)

3RD BATCH OF EUROS LONGS:
STOP-LOSS COST (FOR MARGIN) / CAPITAL PUT IN = 50.0 PIPS
PROFITS = 175.0 PIPS
RETURNS = 3.5X (+350% RETURNS ON CAPITAL)

LAST BATCH OF EUROS LONGS:
STOP-LOSS COST (FOR MARGIN) / CAPITAL PUT IN = 60.0 PIPS
PROFITS =  165 PIPS
RETURNS = 2.75 (+275% RETURNS ON CAPITAL)

========================================================================

1 JUNE 2012, FRIDAY, 9.20PM (US Market not opened yet and European markets are throat-cutting right now):

Per yesterday's post:
EURO 1.23000 (Stop-loss at 1.22700) LONGS TRIGGERED
EURO 1.23100 (Stop-loss at 1.22700) LONGS TRIGGERED
EURO 1.23200 (Stop-loss at 1.22700) LONGS TRIGGERED
EURO 1.23300 (Stop-loss at 1.22700) LONGS TRIGGERED
(All Euros Longs here are Contrarian Trades; short term reversal for all technical rebounds in Stocks, Forex and Commodities triggered)



=======================================================================

Euro-USD: 31 May 2012, Thursday, 8.15am Singapore Time


Euro-USD 1.23100 -1.23300 area will be the reversal point for Euros and financial markets to do an immediate term/short term reversal for all technical rebounds in Stocks, Forex and Commodities.

Look to long Euro for immediate term rebound at 1.23100 -1.23300 for 1.25000-1.25240 Target Price.



Shoulder-Head-Shoulder and Discrete Mathematics

Recommend/Send this article:





There was an interesting argument that this was not a Shoulder-Head-Shoulder (SHS).

The argument went as follows:
"I bet to differ.:) this may not be a head and shoulder pattern because if it is a h&s ,the price projection 16000-8000 = 8000. Then 8000-8000=0. for this head and shoulder pattern will give a target of near to zero. I don't it is possible for a index to go to zero unless all the index component stock goes bankrupt. Just my 2 cents."

For readers' learning purpose, this is my opinion:
"That is why i did not give a projection. It was intended as a chart to show a big distribution over the long term. Technical Analyses are rigid, doesn't necessarily mean everything needs to be rigidly applied. No price projection able to be obtained does not necessarily mean it is not head and shoulders."

It is still a Shoulder Head Shoulder in price structure. What I was particularly interested was the logic given as it reminded me of Discrete Mathematics in Computer Science (yes, the field I was trained in!). This was the logic argued: Head and shoulder implies a price projection to be obtained and no price projection implies not Head and Shoulder. Can such a logic hold? We can apply logic theories in Discrete Mathematics.

In the theory of logic in Discrete Mathematics, "A implies B hence not B implies not A" such an argument is not true. Similarly, "Head and Shoulder implies Price Projection hence No price projection (b/c IBEX=0) implies not Head and Shoulder" such an argument is also not true.

To illustrate a counter-example: German implies speak German (A implies B / SHS implies price projection), going by the logic argued on why it is not SHS, it will conclude that don't speak German implies not German (not B implies not A / "unable to have price projection implies not SHS") and this is not true. Because you can don't speak German but still a German. A German can don't speak German because he is living abroad but that does not make him less German just because he don't speak German. So the logic of not B implies not A following an A implies B cannot hold.

Discrete Mathematics or logic proves that the logic "unable to have price projection of zero implies not Shoulder-Head-Shoulder" cannot stand. Sometimes humans are confused by logic themselves, that is why humans will sometimes accept something illogical. This is the same for financial markets: throw some confusion bombs and the logic of no logic as well as the no logic of logics will be accepted by market participants.

Friday, 1 June 2012

Euro-USD: 1 June 2012, Friday, 9.15pm Singapore Time

LATEST 1 JUNE 2012, FRIDAY, 9.20PM (US Market not opened yet and European markets are throat-cutting right now):

Per yesterday's post:
EURO 1.23000 (Stop-loss at 1.22700) LONGS TRIGGERED
EURO 1.23100 (Stop-loss at 1.22700) LONGS TRIGGERED
EURO 1.23200 (Stop-loss at 1.22700) LONGS TRIGGERED
EURO 1.23300 (Stop-loss at 1.22700) LONGS TRIGGERED
(All Euros Longs here are Contrarian Trades; short term reversal for all technical rebounds in Stocks, Forex and Commodities triggered)

=======================================================================
YESTERDAY'S POST:

Euro-USD: 31 May 2012, Thursday, 8.15am Singapore Time


Euro-USD 1.23100 -1.23300 area will be the reversal point for Euros and financial markets to do an immediate term/short term reversal for all technical rebounds in Stocks, Forex and Commodities.

Look to long Euro for immediate term rebound at 1.23100 -1.23300 for 1.25000-1.25240 Target Price.