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Sunday, 24 June 2012

Genting Analysis: 24 June 2012, Sunday, 1.25pm Singapore Time

Genting Analysis

Somebody specially requested for a Genting Analysis (Casino Stock).
So I have put up an in-depth Genting analysis here:


Warning 1: Accelerated pump up to induce greed and facilitate distribution


Warning 2: Escape Waves 1 and Escape Waves 2


Warning 3:  A show-hand of good news cannot bring up the price means you should run for your life


Warning 4: Using dividends to further trap deeply; important support layer breached again


Warning 5: A set-up to kill even the Technical Analysts; a breakdown confirms Warning 1 and Warning 2 and reinforces Warning 3 and Warning 4.


Warning 6: A perspective of stages

The best Genting will carry on from here is to capitalise on bullish divergences to re-capture DARK BLUE trend support and consolidate within the PINK Sideways movement (best case: few months of selling absorption); however there will be numerous layers of resistances looking to sell and get out at the LIGHT BLUE LINE and DARK BLUE LINE as well as at the moving averages that are all sell pressures now. The normal case would be for sellings intended for price push-down to come. The worst case of course need not be explained (High volumes push-down expected to come soon in the short term if Genting cannot go into the "best-case" explained above). 

Any rebound in Genting is a chance to get out if you have longs; it is also a chance to accumulate shorts if Genting rebounds to the regions above mentioned. If Genting breaks down PINK LINE immediately, it is also worthwhile to initiate some shorts.

Genting is bearish-biased in the mid-term and the long-term.

Now, on my personal view of its fundamentals: if one looks at the long term prospects of Genting, one will realise that Genting Malaysia at the Genting Highlands is not attractive anymore, and many of its facilities at the highlands are old as if not undergone much maintenance. Its long term operations in Singapore Sentosa is much dependant on whether the Universal Studio and Sentosa can continue to lure tourists and to have them desiring to come again. Otherwise it will have to depend much on its gambling operations which Las Vegas Sands is a very strong competitor here, not only in terms of attractions but also on location since Marina Bay Sands is of a much more strategic location compared to Sentosa island.

Based on chart, the intentions of the much more research-informed Big Hands are rather clear as per my chart analyses above. 

4 comments:

  1. Hi Donavan, how about buying Genting now? Can do a charting too on current double bottom breakout? Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Genting is still trying to negate its descending triangle breakdown at $1.40; if $1.40 can be made the support, Genting will do a new uptrend to test for $1.80 and $2.20 respectively. However, if $1.40 fails, it will straight away go for 84cents target. $1.40 is a decider direction.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Donovan
    Price now is 1.475 !
    Seems to have quite a string of new investments in the pipeline
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-17/genting-to-spend-up-to-4-billion-finishing-off-las-vegas-resort.html

    With the CNY festive seasons coming up in a few weeks time, will the casino business pick up and thus drive the price to abv $2 as you predicted ?

    Please advise
    thanks a lot

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. $1.475 is still considered as testing $1.40 as resistance with a whipsaw. You just need to note now that if $1.40 gets reclaimed back as resistance again, it will go for $0.84. Currently I am bearish of all markets.

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