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Showing posts with label USD. Show all posts
Showing posts with label USD. Show all posts

Monday, 25 June 2018

The US Dollar: 25 June 2018, Monday, 12.12am Singapore Time

The US Dollar: 
25 June 2018, Monday, 12.12am Singapore Time
(Click on Technical Chart above to Expand)

Attached is the Long Term Technicals for the US Dollar (USD Index). The entire technical price action flow shows how the USD had made the black support band become the black resistance band in 4Q-2017. In 1H-2018, the USD is making a treacherous backtest of the black support-turned-resistance band to confirm its newfound long term downtrend. The USD is hitting Super-Resistance now (refer chart). It comes at a time when Donald Trump's administration cannot afford to have a strong USD erode the specially crafted Trump policies (trade tariffs, exports, jump-start of Made-in-America, etc.). The Trump administration will have to gear the USD back down soon, otherwise the tariffs will have limited impact and even look silly. This will re-ignite the super-cyclic boom for commodities and commodity stocks worldwide (including crude oil).


Sunday, 28 January 2018

The US Dollar Super Big Downwave: 28 January 2018, Sunday, 12.37pm Singapore Time

The US Dollar Super Big Downwave Chart 1: 
28 January 2018, Sunday, 12.37pm Singapore Time
(Click on Technical Chart above to Enlarge)

This US Dollar Analysis is a prelude to the Crude Oil Market, Crude Oil related Stocks and Emerging Market Analysis to come. The analysis will be as detailed as possible to link much of the inter-asset class groups together. 

Before I proceed with this analysis, I would like to take this opportunity to thank the Malaysian stock and equity market community for their enormous support and kind gestures shown to me all this while. The Malaysians are some of the kindest and most humble people I have seen, ever eager to learn, absorb and improve. In particular, I am greatly inspired by the their unity and Kampung spirit, always looking out for one another in one tightly knitted community. They are the most humble and kind community I have countered. This explains my efforts in doing the more in-depth than usual analysis, to allow everyone to see the big picture and why Emerging Markets like Malaysia and the rest of Asia will hyper rally through the Trump-inspired US policies.

The Green Circled Regions are The Donovan Norfolk live forewarnings in 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 cautioning that the humongous Quantitative Easing (Q.E) by FED with its unlimited money printing will not cause USD to plunge, but instead to super rally, causing commodities, crude oil, energy, commodity stocks and emerging markets and their associated equities and currencies to be weak, and to result in nasty losses for majority of traders and investors in Asia. It all got enacted per my warnings and many Asian market investors suffered deadly losses in those years, true to my words.

The Red Circled Regions are The Donovan Norfolk live forewarnings in 4Q-2015, February 2017 and June 2017 cautioning that USD will have a large wave down soon, against market expectations of the majority herd as well, because most will expect USD to do large wave up due to rise in interest rates and money tightening on the USD. The USD large wave down will once again catch majority by jaw-dropping surprise and will be the exact reverse of the Green Circled Zone. USD major downwave will be happening in 2017, 2018, 2019 and beyond. Commodities, crude oil, energy, commodity stocks and emerging markets and their equities and currencies will become strong again. This will catch 99% of traders and investors big time off-guard, unless they are sharp and smart to have a professional mentor guide them.

The neckline of the large distribution top of the USD has just completed. Already, 90% of the market majority herd are caught on the wrong side of the markets relating to the outlook for all asset classes since 2016 and 2017. This is an exact replica of 2012-2016 market cycle except that the replica is in the reverse now. Most people will be double wrong again.

The US Dollar Super Big Downwave Chart 2: 
28 January 2018, Sunday, 12.37pm Singapore Time
(Click on Technical Chart above to Enlarge)

The attached above gives the most macroscopic perspective of the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index is expected to go down as a major wave to test for historical lows of around $80.00 again. It will likely go below $80.00 too. The US Dollar will create all time historical lows in the coming cycle (and people thought that money-tightening and rise in interest rate is supposed to bring USD up to the moon). The Trump-inspired trajectory down in the movement of the US Dollar will create a tsunami of stock market rally and commodities and energy market rally. In particular, stocks and equity markets of Asia will do a super rally of a lifetime. Now, is Trump and the US really anti-Asia or pro-Asia? Asia will have a super rally of a lifetime.

In particular, there will be a another big round of fishing-trawler style of scoop-ups from the rock bottom -- especially on commodity stocks (includes plantation stocks), energy stocks, crude oil related stocks, oil rig stocks, shale oil stocks, offshore oil and gas stocks, metal stocks, shipping stocks and shipbuilding stocks. With all these primary material class of stocks bullish, this bullish wave will be cascaded to all other sectors for impulsive wave of bullishness across the board (in equity markets for breadth). Finally, not only depth, even breadth will be coming now too.

In addition, as fore-warned in 2017 and 2018, a Gold price target of $1900-$2000 is guaranteed based on price structures on the Gold Technical Chart. Gold will rally with stocks, and Gold will rocket with acceleration if stocks crash, making Gold, Gold ETFs and Gold mining companies the NUMBER 1 PERFECT hedge and a MUST-HAVE in one's portfolio for protection against all directions. Yes, as ludicrous as it may be -- a protection against all directions. 


The Donovan Norfolk Technical Rating:
Very Bullish
(Expected to rally for the rest of 2018 and into 2019)

Additional Note:
The Supercycle Chart of USD above is based on the historical data showing the broad price-adjusted U.S. dollar index published by the Federal Reserve. The index is adjusted for the aggregated home inflation rates of all included currencies. The price adjustment is especially important with United States' Asian and South American trading partners due to their significant inflation episodes of the 80s and 90s.

Past Related Analyses (MUST READ IN DETAIL):

Wednesday, 28 June 2017

US Dollar: 28 June 2017, 4.05pm Singapore Time

US Dollar: 
28 June 2017, 4.05pm Singapore Time
(Click on Chart above to Enlarge)

Attached above is the technicals for USD Index indicating the price actions of the US Dollar. My live warnings in end-2016 and early-2017, forewarning that the USD will sell off on FED tightening and FED rate hikes, is being enacted in the forex markets right now. Many people bought the USD expecting FED tightening and FED rate hikes to rally the USD, most of them are losing heavily per my warnings now. The technicals show you in addition where the classic bump-and-run using green lines had been conducted by the market, where the major trend breaks occurred and where successful backtest of selling was confirmed. In addition, a further yellow bear flag was formed and it is bearish and has broken down further. Expect 92.00-93.00 support band to be tested next.


Wednesday, 1 February 2017

US wants a much weaker USD under the Trump administration: 1 February 2017, 12.20am Singapore Time

US wants a much weaker USD under the Trump administration: 
1 February 2017, 12.20am Singapore Time


US wants a much weaker USD under the Trump administration: 
1 February 2017, 12.20am Singapore Time

DNA Technical Rating:
USD Bearish
All Commodities and Commodity Stocks Bullish


Tuesday, 16 September 2014

US Dollar: 16 September 2014, Tuesday, 8.40pm Singapore Time

US Dollar: 16 September 2014, Tuesday, 8.40pm Singapore Time

Attached above is the US Dollar Index Monthly Chart.
US Dollar has confirmed its short term, mid term, long term and very long term secular bull market in price structure. The USD will rally for its first monthly-chart RSI overbuy position for the first time since Year 2000, i.e. the first time since the past 14 years. 

US Dollar will be executing its secular bull market and multi-decade secular reversal to bull as warned earlier: 

This is all coming sooner than what majority would had expected.
Read the above attached link in detail for what is happening and the implications.

Many stocks-equities investors, leveraged property investors and financial market investors, especially those in Asia, will suffer major wealth destruction during the secular reversal of Greenspan-Bernanke financial market tide as documented in detail here:
http://donovan-ang.blogspot.sg/2014/06/singapore-govt-aaa-bonds-sibor-usdsgd.html



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Monday, 19 November 2012

USD Index: 19 November 2012, Monday, 8.45pm

USD Index: 19 November 2012, Monday, 8.45pm

Attached is the latest USD Index Chart. Since last year August, I have always been bullish of the USD despite all the US Quantitative Easings (QEs), Money Printings and the Doom Sayers' glooms about the US Dollar. 

Remember, the herd majority are to make losses following logic. The more logic you have, the more you lose.
The financial markets are never easy.

In contrast to DONOVAN BULLISH RATING ON USD, Donovan Rating on Gold maintains SELL/SHORT/DUMP ON GOLD (the over-whelming majority of market participants see gold having almost zero probability of falling/correcting sharply).

The chart above illustrates all the LONG/BUY ENTRIES AS ABOVE. 80.50 within the LONG/BUY 4 is the optimal zone within the  LONG/BUY 4. Market does not necessarily give the optimal entry though. 

Cut all USD longs if market breaks down BLUE Support Trendline.

Wednesday, 19 September 2012

USD Index: 19 September 2012, Wednesday, 10.07pm Singapore Time

USD Index: 19 September 2012, Wednesday, 10.07pm Singapore Time

The chart above shows USD Index breaking down the BLUE Support line which most technical analysts around the world sees. They are all bearish of the USD given the surface news (QE3) and shorted USD on news, especially when it is really convincing that USD is bearish with all the money printing. But is it really so?

If US prints, who says the basket of associated currencies cannot outdo US? Japan is already the first to outdo and outlast. Secondly, as mentioned in my previous articles that the final nail for Europe is coming, this means USD may be unexpectedly in high demand. Many opposing forces at work here certainly.

The problem with shorting on such convincing news is that the USD already broke down the BLUE Support 1 month ago in August 2012, and is at the Support area following the news. What does this mean? It may mean a massacre of the majority of market participants who view QE3 as bullish to financial markets and USD as bearish (including the high profile Daryl Guppy etc). Is it really the case? This had already been absorbed 1 month ago. The 5% insiders are always ahead and now doing opposite of the 95% who depend on news to be on the wrong side.

As of now, the financial markets have still not confirmed USD change of trend. USD remains in the over-looked RED Channel above. Furthermore, USD is now at a very important point indicated by the GREEN CIRCLE above, an intersection of TRIPLE strong supports. Only a breakdown below the triple strong supports will confirm a USD Bear. Otherwise, USD remains bullish and financial markets remain bearish.

At the triple major support, since many high profile analysts and majority of market participants are bearish on USD due to QE3, majority have shorted USD, and are bearish of it; because of this, there is a high probability of US Dollar rebounding from the current point (GREEN CIRCLE above), and carry on its up-trend.

It takes a lot of guts to be a contrarian of the market currently.

Note: 
USD Supported means Financial Markets Resisted.
USD Bullish ==> Financial Markets Bearish

Monday, 3 September 2012

Euro-USD: 3 September 2012, Monday, 9.30am

What a week we had last friday with Bernanke's speech at Jackson hole eh? The volatility was extreme, up and down 60pips within minutes.

For this coming week, it is a tough call. I do not know whether to be a bull or bear. The price action is calling for both directions!! Why? Lets begin with the daily chart. The daily charts shows a bearish price action.

On the daily chart, we see:
1. Price action is bearish with a clearly defined falling channel with 3 confirmed points
2. Price is touching potential point 4 for this week
3. Pivot zone resistance from 15th Jan 2012 at 1.2650

Euro USD (EURUSD) Daily Chart

On the 4hr chart, we see:
1. Price action is bullish with a rising channel with also 3 confirmed points
2. 1.2420-40 could be a new support zone

Euro USD (EURUSD) 4-Hour Chart

So what is the key to this dilemma? I think the key battle may be 1.2650.  

Bull traders:
1. Price must break above and stay above 1.2650 
2. Price to stay within 4hr rising channel 
3. Price to touch rising channel to form point 4 to create a 4th higher low in order to break above 1.2650

Bear traders:
1. Price fails to break above 1.2650
2. Reversal patterns such as double top or head and shoulders to form on 1hr or 4hr chart
3. Price must not form a point 4 on 4hr rising channel
4. Price must break out from the 4hr rising channel 



The following quality article is contributed by FMG who is an active forex trader. He is also the webmaster of http://www.forexmindgames.com/.


Saturday, 18 August 2012

US Dollar: 18 August 2012, Saturday, 7.00pm

US Dollar Technical Analysis: 18 August 2012, Saturday, 7.00pm

US Dollar is still in a strong and healthy uptrend. It will be foolish to be bullish of the financial markets, commodities and oil. 

Financial markets in Europe and Asia to remain in a BEAR MARKET;
Commodities to remain BEARISH;
Euro to remain in BEAR MARKET;
Oil to resume BEARISH;
Gold at INFLEXION/BEARISH

USD Price Satisfaction Target of $85.10-$86.10 has not been satisfied yet. Short-term still in downtrend consolidation, Mid-term Sideways consolidation and Long-term Uptrend.

Financial Markets in Asia and Europe are currently in short term uptrend (ENDING SOON BASED ON DONOVAN FUNDS FLOW ANALYSIS), Mid Term Sideways and Long Term BEAR MARKET that is still at early stage.

Saturday, 7 July 2012

US Dollar (USD): 7 July 2012, Saturday, 5.45pm Singapore Time

US Dollar (USD) Index: 7 July 2012, Saturday, 5.45pm Singapore Time


The US Dollar will carry on its rally from current point to above $85 in the short term, presenting the next sizeable upside.

DONOVAN RATING:
BUY (ACCUMULATE USD) FROM $81-$83 BEFORE ITS BREAKUP OF IMMEDIATE RESISTANCE AT $82.98.

Intermarket Analysis:
When the USD has consolidated for the next upmove, it means the world financial markets (Frankfurt DAX, London FTSE100, Paris CAC40, Milan MIB, Madrid IBEX, Hong Kong HSI, Seoul KOSPI, Taiwan Taiex, Tokyo NIKKEI, Singapore SiMSCI/STI, Delhi SENSEX, Australia ASX, Shanghai SSE), Commodities, Gold, Silver, Oil and major currencies against USD such as AUD-USD and Euro-USD are soon to be finished with their technical rebounds, and about to finish consolidation for the next wave sell-downs. 


Wednesday, 20 June 2012

Euro-USD: 20 June 2012, Wednesday, 3.12pm Singapore Time


Euro Chart: Euro-USD: 20 June 2012, Wednesday, 3.12pm Singapore Time

Euro-USD Target: $1.30800
Market has too many Euro shortists at the moment. Next immediate target is 1.28500-1.29000 based on Fibo before retracement down to estimated 1.28000 and upwards thrust to above 1.30000. All Fibo movements. Algorithmic distribution will start to come slowly beyond 1.30000. World major financial markets (FTSE, CAC, DAX, MIB, IBEX, HSI, STI, KOSPI, DJIA, S&P500, NASDAQ) will react in positive correlation to Euro.
Operation: Shortists Clean-up (rally to above $1.30000 ) before the next wave down

Wednesday, 13 June 2012

Euro-USD: 13 June 2012, Wednesday, 10.15pm Singapore Time

Queueing to long Euro against USD at 1.25000, 1.25100, 1.25200 and 1.25300.
Target price:

1st Target: 1.27000-1.27500
2nd Target:1.30816-1.31000

Refer:
http://donovan-ang.blogspot.com/2012/06/11-june-2012-monday-957am-market-update.html

Dow (DJIA) Queue on Longs triggered at 12515 and 12520 points respectively in 2 batches.

Thursday, 7 June 2012

Euro-USD: 7 June 2012, Wednesday, 8.30am Singapore Time

Euro-USD Chart of 7 June 2012, Thursday, 8.17am

Direction has changed with confirmation for the coming 1-2 months for world financial markets (Forex against USD, major Asian, European and US Indices, Commodities and Stocks). Bullish upside attack locked on and intentions confirmed. Too many people shorting Euros, those late shortists will not be able to survive but wiped out in the immediate term.

Looking to long Euros at 1.25000, 1.25050, 1.25100, 1.25150, 1.25200 and 1.25250 with very loose stop loss and to hold for a longer term. Looking to long Commodity Stocks such as Sakari Resources at S$1.25-S$1.28 for technical backtests. Commodity Stocks in Australia, Asia, Europe and US will be whacked up in the next few weeks, including this week.

Euro-USD:
1st Target: 1.27000-1.27500 (Take Half of all longs profits)
2nd Target: 1.30816 (Take remaining profits)

Wednesday, 6 June 2012

Euro-USD: 6 June 2012, Wednesday, 8.05am Singapore Time

Euro-USD: 6 June 2012, Wednesday, 8.05am Singapore Time

Euro-USD Hourly Chart: A Close Up Look


Pretty self-explanatory. Enter into BLACK BOX zone and a messy bi-directional whipsaw for world financial markets to operate for the next few days. Breaking up BLUE & PURPLE resistances and the up-direction is set for the mid term. Breaking down GREEN support and the movement is still trapped inside the RED channel for the short term. 1.25000 area is still the key, while BLACK BOX region is like a black hole for volatility which would be good for big hands if they are looking to ease the process of taking profits of their shorts in financial derivatives, indices and stocks markets. Volatility in Forex markets will induce stocks and indices algorithms to tailgate the volatility in Forex.

However, Euro (against USD) is still looking to reach its 1.30000 objective in the short-mid term before it can carry on its downtrend.

Tuesday, 5 June 2012

Euro-USD: 5 June 2012, Tuesday, 2.47am Singapore Time


NEW EUROS-USD SET-UP (IMMEDIATE TERM/SHORT TERM)

Long Euros if 1.25250 resistance breaks up (Tgt = 1.27500);
else Short Euros if 1.25000 resistance holds and 1.24737 breaks down (Tgt below 1.23000 and constantly variable due to down-channel);
else sideline until either set-up triggers.

Stop-loss Put in as Capital = 50 Pips.

Monday, 4 June 2012

Euro-USD: 4 June 2012, Monday, 11.06pm Singapore Time


LATEST 4 JUNE 2012, MONDAY, 11.06PM:

As per last Friday's execution plan (to take profit of all Euros at 1.25000):
EURO 1.23000 BATCH (Stop-loss at 1.22700), SELLS TRIGGERED AT 1.25000 (10.16PM)
EURO 1.23100 BATCH (Stop-loss at 1.22700), SELLS TRIGGERED AT 1.25000 (10.16PM) 
EURO 1.23200 BATCH (Stop-loss at 1.22700), SELLS TRIGGERED AT 1.24950 (10.58PM) 
EURO 1.23300 BATCH (Stop-loss at 1.22700), SELLS TRIGGERED AT 1.24950 (10.58PM)

SETTLEMENT (today 4 June 2012):

1ST BATCH OF EUROS LONGS:
STOP-LOSS COST (FOR MARGIN) / CAPITAL PUT IN = 30.0 PIPS
PROFITS = 200.0 PIPS
RETURNS = 6.67X (+667% RETURNS ON CAPITAL)

2ND BATCH OF EUROS LONGS:
STOP-LOSS COST (FOR MARGIN) / CAPITAL PUT IN = 40.0 PIPS
PROFITS = 190.0 PIPS
RETURNS = 4.75X (+475% RETURNS ON CAPITAL)

3RD BATCH OF EUROS LONGS:
STOP-LOSS COST (FOR MARGIN) / CAPITAL PUT IN = 50.0 PIPS
PROFITS = 175.0 PIPS
RETURNS = 3.5X (+350% RETURNS ON CAPITAL)

LAST BATCH OF EUROS LONGS:
STOP-LOSS COST (FOR MARGIN) / CAPITAL PUT IN = 60.0 PIPS
PROFITS =  165 PIPS
RETURNS = 2.75 (+275% RETURNS ON CAPITAL)

========================================================================

1 JUNE 2012, FRIDAY, 9.20PM (US Market not opened yet and European markets are throat-cutting right now):

Per yesterday's post:
EURO 1.23000 (Stop-loss at 1.22700) LONGS TRIGGERED
EURO 1.23100 (Stop-loss at 1.22700) LONGS TRIGGERED
EURO 1.23200 (Stop-loss at 1.22700) LONGS TRIGGERED
EURO 1.23300 (Stop-loss at 1.22700) LONGS TRIGGERED
(All Euros Longs here are Contrarian Trades; short term reversal for all technical rebounds in Stocks, Forex and Commodities triggered)



=======================================================================

Euro-USD: 31 May 2012, Thursday, 8.15am Singapore Time


Euro-USD 1.23100 -1.23300 area will be the reversal point for Euros and financial markets to do an immediate term/short term reversal for all technical rebounds in Stocks, Forex and Commodities.

Look to long Euro for immediate term rebound at 1.23100 -1.23300 for 1.25000-1.25240 Target Price.



Friday, 1 June 2012

Euro-USD: 1 June 2012, Friday, 9.15pm Singapore Time

LATEST 1 JUNE 2012, FRIDAY, 9.20PM (US Market not opened yet and European markets are throat-cutting right now):

Per yesterday's post:
EURO 1.23000 (Stop-loss at 1.22700) LONGS TRIGGERED
EURO 1.23100 (Stop-loss at 1.22700) LONGS TRIGGERED
EURO 1.23200 (Stop-loss at 1.22700) LONGS TRIGGERED
EURO 1.23300 (Stop-loss at 1.22700) LONGS TRIGGERED
(All Euros Longs here are Contrarian Trades; short term reversal for all technical rebounds in Stocks, Forex and Commodities triggered)

=======================================================================
YESTERDAY'S POST:

Euro-USD: 31 May 2012, Thursday, 8.15am Singapore Time


Euro-USD 1.23100 -1.23300 area will be the reversal point for Euros and financial markets to do an immediate term/short term reversal for all technical rebounds in Stocks, Forex and Commodities.

Look to long Euro for immediate term rebound at 1.23100 -1.23300 for 1.25000-1.25240 Target Price.



Thursday, 31 May 2012

Euro-USD: 31 May 2012, Thursday, 8.15am Singapore Time

Euro-USD 1.23100 -1.23300 area will be the reversal point for Euros and financial markets to do an immediate term/short term reversal for all technical rebounds in Stocks, Forex and Commodities.

Look to long Euro for immediate term rebound at 1.23100 -1.23300 for 1.25000-1.25240 Target Price.

Euro-USD: 31 May 2012, Thursday, 12.12am Singapore Time

Euro-USD

Worldwide stock markets are likely to have immediate few days' rebounding upmove together with Euro.
This rebound can prove to be a short term game changer, it can remain as mere dead cat bounce. The answer will be revealed at the intersection of RED-BLUE lines. Forex market recently sets the tone first.

Wednesday, 30 May 2012

Euro-USD: 30 May 2012, Wednesday, 11.25pm Singapore Time

 YESTERDAY'S SET-UP TRADE CUM LIVE CHART & LIVE TRADE:


Yesterday's Euro-USD Hourly Chart

Euro-USD Trade (yesterday 29 May 2012):
Short if 1.24963 breaks down for 1.24000 Target Profit (TP) area as target
Long if 1.24963 holds and BLACK BOX REGION (triple resistance) breaks up for 1.30816 Target Profit (TP) as target.

SETTLEMENT (today 30 May 2012):
SHORTS TRIGGERED AT 1.24960 YESTERDAY, ALL PROFITS JUST TAKEN AT 1.23960 PER YESTERDAY'S SET-UP RULES.

STOP-LOSS COST (FOR MARGIN) / CAPITAL PUT IN = 20.0 PIPS
PROFITS = 100.0 PIPS.
RETURNS = 5X (+500% RETURNS ON CAPITAL)