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Tuesday, 23 October 2012

Appreciation

Thank you to the more than 35,000 unique visitors. 
Donovan's Market Analysis was set up not long ago, 
and has been a viral hot hit within a relatively short span of time.


List is not exhaustive...

Friday, 19 October 2012

FTSE ST Real Estate Index: 19 October 2012, Friday, 11.59pm Singapore Time

FTSE ST Real Estate Index: 19 October 2012, Friday, 11.59pm Singapore Time

Following the Donovan Singapore Property Market Composite Index (refer: http://donovan-ang.blogspot.sg/2012/10/singapore-property-technical-analysis-6.html), the following is the Singapore FTSE Straits Times Real Estate Index for comparison. Both indices give different perspectives of how the Singapore Property Market is performing, where they stand currently and what to expect.

The Donovan Singapore Property Market Composite Indexhttp://donovan-ang.blogspot.sg/2012/10/singapore-property-technical-analysis-6.html shows that a long term downtrend had already begun, while the FTSE Straits Times Real Estate Index has not detected such a trend yet, perhaps because the numerous large index-constituent property conglomerations and stable REITS are still holding up the FTSE Straits Times Real Estate Index. This may mask the true pictures shone by the rest of the sector. These large property conglomerations usually have better Economies of Scale and, hence, are able to resist initial erosions to corporate results in a deteriorating environment. We cannot say the same for the mid-cap and smaller cap counterparts.

The large caps, which make up majority of the FTSE ST Real Estate Index, are hence much less sensitive in reflecting changes to business as well as economic environments, resulting in FTSE ST Real Estate Index being relatively a laggard as a litmus.

On the FTSE Straits Times Real Estate Indexthe breakdown has not happened yet but has a nicely formed bearish wedge price structure. The price satisfaction has already been achieved and the large bearish wedge is awaiting the break down. A capture above the trendline resistance formed by R1, R2, R3, R4 and R5 will negate a potential property bear caused by the bearish wedge formation. However, anything above the trendline resistance formed by R1 to R5 is also where the Big Hands and market will deliberately create an over-value zone for distributional selling. The long term bearish structure should break down soon since it is approaching the 2/3 point and that Donovan Singapore Property Market Composite Index had already broken down. At the trendline support caused by S1 and S2, the government should try to cushion the property corrections, otherwise there would be a prolonged downwards movement.

While the FTSE ST Real Estate Index is testing wedge resistance, on the Donovan Singapore Property Market Composite Index, the property rebounds are already restricted by long term Support-Turned-Resistances, and hence any upside is limited. Furthermore, on the Donovan Singapore Property Market Composite Index, the important break downs had already been completed, and current rebounds by the property sector are just mere back-test confirmation of the long term bear which had already set in.

On both charts, Donovan Singapore Property Market Composite Index and FTSE Straits Times Real Estate Index, both are bearish in nature. A break down of the FTSE Straits Times Real Estate Index below BLUE support band formed by S1 and S2 will be a double confirmation for Donovan Singapore Property Market Composite Index Bear Market which had already broken down and completing the initial stage of property bear market back-test: http://donovan-ang.blogspot.sg/2012/10/singapore-property-technical-analysis-6.html


Summary:

From Donovan Analysis as above, contrary to the popular belief that there is a housing bubble in Singapore, in actual fact, there is no bubble. There is no bubble in part due to perhaps the good preventive measures and cooling measures implemented by the Singapore government; hence, any property fall will not have too nasty an impact to the Singapore economy. In such a case, the Singapore Banking Sector will not be hurt too badly as there were no bubbles that could result in loan assets turning toxic. 

However, within 1-2 year's time, we should see the price structures reflected by the financial market (Donovan Singapore Property Market Composite Index and FTSE Straits Times Real Estate Index) get translated in the physical property market, i.e. one of which prices of physical property start significant correction mode. Expect COE and COV to drop in the same timeframe too.


Donovan Rating:
Precautions needed; watch out, as Singapore Property Market is to peak in 2012.

Related:
http://donovan-ang.blogspot.sg/search/label/Singapore%20Property




Thursday, 18 October 2012

Donovan's Market Analysis @ MoneyMind TV Programme

Donovan's Market Analysis @ MoneyMind TV Programme


I will be on National Television @ ChannelNewsAsia Channel on 21 October 2012, 9.30 p.m, and be featured in the financial programme, MoneyMind. Do show MoneyMind your support. 



MEDIA ALERT: 

Money Mind put out a Q&A of the views of Trader and Blogger Donovan Ang for his take on financial blogs for this Sunday's episode (Oct 21) at 9.30pm on ChannelNewsAsia. Others interviewed include bloggers, research analysts and the Director of Internet Research at NTU. The story examines the proliferation of financial blogs and charts on online investment portals, information sharing sites and social media - and whether the information is trustworthy.
Don't forget to catch the program (Sunday 9.30pm Encore Monday 6am/11.30am Tuesday 3.30pm) or log onto: Website: http://www.channelnewsasia.com/moneymind
Facebook Page: http://www.facebook.com/MoneyMindCNA for more information

Frederick Lim
Editor, Money Mind
ChannelNewsAsia
Website: http://www.channelnewsasia.com/moneymind
Facebook Page: http://www.facebook.com/MoneyMindCNA

Saturday, 6 October 2012

Donovan Singapore Property Market Composite Index: 6 October 2012, Saturday, 4.22pm

Donovan Singapore Property Market Composite Index: 6 October 2012, Saturday, 4.22pm

The chart attached is a Composite Index of the Singapore Property Market, comprising of the truest litmus reflections of the local property market. The Donovan created Donovan Singapore Property Market Composite Index consists of the blue chips, large caps, mid caps and small caps (CityDev, Capitaland, Keppeland, SC Global, UOL, Wing Tai, Ho Bee, Hong Fok, Roxy-Pacific) that are reflective of and active in the Singapore property market. For ease of reference and comparison with respect to the Straits Times Index, all values of the Singapore Property Market Composite Index will be given x100 to derive with a 4-digit index.

The first warnings by the market were given the salvo during June, July and August 2011 (last year) with the breaking down of the Singapore Property Market Composite Index at near 2600 points (corresponding with $26 above). 

The August 2011 nasty market plunges were, beforehand, given severe pre-warnings by me in June and July last year 2011 (refer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QroFRLSf16I and
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8pfhkQAiA4&feature=relmfu ), during which in the final week of July 2011 when everyone was bullish, I had warned severely that Big Hands were going to plunge the market in the 1st week of August based on Donovan Funds Flow Analysis Calculations. True enough, the plunge came, and alas, Technical damage was achieved as a first stage operation.

With mass bearishness in the market at the end of 2011, in which the masses are always supposed to be wrong, from December 2011, the market achieved the A-B-C big wave Mid Term Technical Rebound, throwing confusion to the masses who were once again wrong on their bearishness.

With the introduction of QE3, the masses are to be wrong yet again with their bullishness. This is because the QE3 (or QEfinity) had already been absorbed by the markets and baked into the prices way beforehand. This had already been absorbed by the entire duration of 2012 leading to the announcement; market had already priced in QE3 way before it was released.

This time round, Market made use of these final few weeks to make its last (limited movement up) backtest of Bear Market Lines (R1, R2 and R3 above). Worse, R4 Mid Term BLACK RESISTANCE LINE was also satisfied. To make all things worse, that is worst of the worse, Price Sastisfaction Target was also achieved concurrently at 2998 points (corresponding with $29.98). This would make it the R5. Concurrently, all R1-R5 are triggered for sell-downs.

The market is merely awaiting for the price satisfaction triangle to break down as above charted Technical Analysis shows (Thinner BLUE SUPPORT LINE). The GREY SUPPORT LINE is the first target. There is no time frame for achieving that. However, if the movement to GREY SUPPORT is impulsive, there is a likelihood that GREY SUPPORT would not hold, and if it does not hold, it means the property market is resuming, officially, the next stage of its nascent bear market based on my Technical Analysis. 

Only a re-capture of YELLOW R1, ORANGE R2 AND RED R3 will negate the Singapore Property Market Composite Index Nascent Bear Market. There is extremely low likelihood of re-capturing the resistances because R1, R2, R3, R4 and R5 are very high sell pressure points. The distribution was high volume and rebound was far below par in comparison. This shows that there are plenty of small fishes and mid sized fishes holding unwanted babies that the Big Hands disposed of. In addition, Big Hands were piling up stocks shorts as mentioned last few weeks.

Based on charted Technical Analysis above (refer chart above), all late comers will have to be careful against getting hurt in the property market as well as property stocks. QE3 merely did the market backtests in Gold (previously highlighted) as well as the backtests in Donovan Singapore Property Market Composite Index

Donovan Rating:
Red Alert. Be Cautious. Selldown/Rainstorm Coming.

Friday, 5 October 2012

Gold Technical Analysis: 5 October 2012, Friday, 9.40am Singapore Time

Gold Technical Analysis: 5 October 2012, Friday, 9.40am Singapore Time

Contrary to the 95% of market participants who view gold as a buy, investment, long or whatever you call it, the 5% of the real pros are already out, while 95% are already in. The 5% who are the Big Hands may in fact be going against the majority already. The more convincing the news, logic, facts and classical conditioning (3rd Quantitative Easing), the more sure people (traders and investors) will go into the mouse traps not only in Gold but in financial/investment markets worldwide. Afterall, how to catch the 95% of market participants and have them go into the traps willingly if the news, logic, facts and classical conditionings are not showing compulsive buys and sure win gambles?


Long Term: Downtrend
Mid Term: Downtrend
Short Term: Uptrend Ending

The above characteristic throws confusion to the markets.

This is still a nascent stage of a super cycle Gold Bear.

Be careful of your investments in all financial asset classes worldwide.

Donovan Norfolk Technical Rating on Gold:
BEARISH; SELL/SHORT.

Wednesday, 3 October 2012

First Hand Analysis Update: 3 October 2012, Wednesday, 12.05pm Singapore Time:

3 October 2012, Wednesday, 12.05pm Singapore Time: 


First Hand Analysis Update exclusive for those following my market analyses closely as well as those following my Facebook Wall. The markets worldwide have all reached the most critical of all resistances currently, with Spain testing and failed several days ago; the others will follow the test, a break up will mean negation of bear market (probability = zero based on FFA), this implies there will be synchronised worldwide sell-downs for the next few weeks. Those who had bought into the QE3 are mostly trapped and underwater with losses, the losses will mushroom like a nuclear mushroom cloud.

Monday, 1 October 2012

FTSE MIB: 1 October 2012, Monday, 1.15pm


FTSE MIB: 1 October 2012, Monday, 1.15pm

The following is intradays' chart of FTSE MIB (Italy Index). 

As per warned last 2 weeks on market bearishness, FTSE MIB had indeed broken down the RED SUPPORTS and PINK SUPPORTS as above. 

There is a high probability of broad European rebound for a few hours (once Europe opens) before resuming a selldown after US market opens.

As per severely warned since QE3 was announced, the Donovan-BMSTSI (measurement of broad market shorts) had been stacking up everyday, suggesting very high confidence shorts by Big Hands while everyone were buying the markets for investments and tradings. One should had been dumping on this last escape wave that had already ended and should had invested in mid-long term shorts.

The Euro Crisis is back in play, unless Italy can negate the pink SUPPORT-TURNED-RESISTANCE at around 15700 points. Only a reclamation of the above PINK lines will stop a continuation of the selldowns. Otherwise the markets will keep selling down, which is to be expected since QE3 was a convincing buy/holding on to investments, and the majority of naive market participants are supposed to lose money.

Per expected, Australian Dollar (AUD-USD) is continuing to sell down below $1.04000.
Commodities will carry on its broad sell off.