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Monday, 9 October 2017

Baltic Dry Index, Shipping Industry and Shipping-Related Companies: 9 October 2017, Monday, 12.08am Singapore Time

Chart 1: 
Baltic Dry Index, Shipping Industry and Shipping-Related Companies:
9 October 2017, Monday, 12.08am Singapore Time
(Click on Chart Above to Expand)

Attached Chart 1 is the technicals for Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the indicator for the state of international shipping and trade activities globally. The first yellow oval region is my live warnings in 1H-2014 forewarning that shipping sectors worldwide will go through a cold harsh winter in the shipping cycle amidst all the Quantitative Easing. (Refer to past Neptune Orient Lines NOL analyses as attached with the BDI too). The 2nd circled region is my reiterated fore-warnings in 2H-2014 on shipping sectors worldwide (refer to past track records). Shipping industry indeed plunged severely after my warnings which saw many shipping companies go belly up.

The light green region is my live warnings in 1H-2016 calling for everything to finally bottom including the global shipping industry. In the dark green region on BDI chart, Singapore plunged into technical recession together with global weakness, but I forewarned in a series of high profile analyses that these had all been priced in, and that markets worldwide, including Singapore and the shipping sectors, will start a new wave of bull market rally, all over again, this time from a 2016-bear-negation bottom. This was because international markets' volume flow were more of re-accumulation rather than distribution. The price actions were not bear market style despite sell-offs looking sharp. Indeed, every market action is in tune and enacted after my live fore-warnings.


Chart 2: 
Baltic Dry Index, Shipping Industry and Shipping-Related Companies:
9 October 2017, Monday, 12.08am Singapore Time
(Click on Chart Above to Expand)

Illustrated on Chart 2, the Baltic Dry Index indicating health of global shipping industry is now expected to shoot up to the moon marking full recovery in global trade and international shipping. This is in tune with the cyclical phase within my financial modelling. This also means that Singapore' Neptune Orient Lines, NOL, had unfortunately been sold to the astute French at the capitulation rock bottom prices not long ago. Below chart 3 will further illustrate the larger cycle.
Chart 3: 
Baltic Dry Index, Shipping Industry and Shipping-Related Companies:
9 October 2017, Monday, 12.08am Singapore Time
(Click on Chart Above to Expand)

Chart 3 illustrates the larger and longer term price structure framework of how the BDI and shipping companies will shape up. In the larger context of the shipping cycle, the light blue large rounding bottom will continue to guide the long term recovery of the global shipping industry. The expected cyclical trajectory of the BDI is indicated on chart. This is a price structure of a sustained recovery. A large U-shaped bottom means the recovery is healthy.

On extrapolation of statistics, what does this all further mean?

As shipping industry (BDI) is a measure of non-phony growth, this means financial markets for the next few years (extending beyond 2017 into 2018, 2019, etc.. ) will likely continue to be bull market and we may have one of the most long-lived bull market in history. Almost all stock market indices in Asia will hence keep making historic all time new highs. Many markets in Europe may likely do the same. US markets will continue to chalk up historic new highs. Almost all economies will have broken up historic all time new highs by the time the global bull market ends. For now, the bull party will carry on (non-phony growth picked up finally), and always remember: 
"The more the wall of worries are set up, the better it is for financial markets to go higher. Markets will be in distribution mode only when it looks invincible without a single worry nor pessimism."

For now, markets globally are still full of worries, war threats, gloom and pessimism. 
This is good for bulls and bad for bears.


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