Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
Eurozone deflationary pressure will cause Euro to have strong support at the BLUE and BLACK support trendlines as above.
Euro is currently at 200 days Moving Average as a support. If Euro is to change to downtrend and go ahead to break down the long term uptrend presented by the BLUE and BLACK support trendlines as above, it will have to rebound from here and backtest 50 days Moving Average as a resistance first.
EURUSD rebound is expected.
Euro is reaching a critical stage: If 1.38000 is backtested as resistance successfully, it will change trend and proceed to break down; otherwise, Euro is still on an uptrend.
The market is hinting that ECB will be making an important decision soon, and chances are that they may want to devalue/depreciate the Euro to stimulate inflation. Avoidance of vicious deflation will be a top priority of the ECB. Depreciation of the Euro through monetary policies is a direct path.
Donovan Norfolk Technical Rating:
Long term uptrend weakening.