Nikkei (日经指数): 10 June 2013, Monday, 4.45pm Singapore Time
The following is a follow-up of the analysis made on 25 May 2013: http://donovan-ang.blogspot.sg/2013/05/nikkei-25-may-2013-saturday-133pm.html
Attached above is the follow-up chart of Nikkei 225 Index.
On 25 May 2013, there were 2 scenarios that Nikkei would play out. I quote from my previous analysis:
"Having met the "Lost-Decades Resistance" recently, there are currently 2 treacherous back-test points in Nikkei, of which failing both tests would result in disastrous consequences:
1st Macro-Test: Testing the 12,000-14,450 points PINK Band of Litmus Test
2nd Macro-Test: Testing the original break up point of RED Wedge at 9,800-10,000 points as final Litmus
In Test 1 Macro-test, if 14,450 breaks down (in fact, it already had broken down in Nikkei futures) and should 14,450 points support not hold, 12,000 points becomes the first real target and the first real test of support to see if Japanese government can solve their JGB (Japanese Govt Bonds) Crisis."
"If during this time, Japan can come out with a solution, its ascent to break up 14,000-15,000 points 'Lost Decade Downtrend Line' will still carry on"
The Japanese market and Nikkei has already fallen within the PINK BAND support of 12,000-14,450 points pre-warned. This is now a litmus test for Abenomics and JGBs. This was to be the 1st Macro-Test that I had reiterated many times.
Japan will still try to break out of its more than 20-year Secular Bear Market of Lost Decades.
If this happens, the upside will be explosive and tremendous in a 10,000-point upmove stage, a bull which one will seldom see in one's life time. Since this 20-year Secular Bear Market of Lost Decades' Trendline Resistance is extremely powerful, any break-up will be explosive upwards, and any fake break-up will result in a superb melt-down after the breakup.
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Bull market for nikkei, bear market for sti? Does this make sense?
ReplyDeleteHi Hyruga, my analysis of Straits Times Index is a correction for Straits Times Index, not a bear market. Have you read carefully my analyses?
ReplyDeleteIf you did not read carefully, then I quote here for you again from my STI analysis:
"Will this correction end up as a start of a new bear market?
It is inconclusive at current point and is UNLIKELY that this correction is a start of a new bear market."
Hope it helps.
In fact, just like penny stocks are independent of main index direction, Nikkei can itself choose to be independent of world market short-mid term corrections.
hi donovan
ReplyDeletewith the exception of Xmas Day, the Nikkei has stay above 16000 points, the critical resistance level that you correctly predicted.
Day chart seems to show a reversal pattern of downtrend. Is this a mild correction or something bigger brewing behind by the Big Hands ?
Is this any co-relation with the yen currency as well ?
Notice when Nikkei rises from Xmas eve to current, the yen weakens nicely as well .
Confused and lost in connecting the dots ...........
Please help, thanks a lot