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Tuesday, 31 July 2012

Gold Market: 31 July 2012, Tuesday, 11.45pm

Gold Market: 31 July 2012, Tuesday, 11.45pm

Gold Market: Up-trend Ended with Strong Intention

Gold is about to finish its consolidation. Only a break-up above the red trend line will negate the damaged price structures and carry on a long term up-trend (Low probability). Otherwise, the Gold trend has been damaged. As early as July 2011 to October 2011, Big Hands had been inducing greed for distribution (Central Banks of Emerging Markets keep loading Gold, retailers buy up and loading Gold, and Gold became no brainer buy, with majority of market participants holding paper losses now based on volume analysis). The insiders have signalled their confirmation of intentions at the end of 2011 and during March 2012, dumping with acceleration. No insider is buying up Gold during this technical rebounds based on Price-Volume Analysis of last few months. If Gold is not even bought up, no one should even be bullish about stocks and the financial markets.

If one is still holding Gold investments and financial investments generally, one should be very cautious. Do not go into any longs in stocks, commodities, indices, futures, Gold and Silver. Calculated downside projection for Gold and Gold ETF as follows:


Gold Target = $1127.94

Donovan Rating: 
Short Commodities, Short Gold

2 comments:

  1. Hi,
    with regards to your earlier posts on markets reaching certain targets, why is your rating still "short commodities, short... " isn't it still a bit early to short? Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Individual stocks do not always need to react to indices. What I had done is spreading my shorts. Probing Shorts (Initial), Confirmation Shorts (after initial) and Backtest Shorts (After confirmations to act as double confirmation shorts). Current market movement is at the short-mid term Backtest shorts stage.

    Never fire all bullets at once.

    Also, at every mid term, I will eye to add long term positions using only profits/paper profits accumulated; for example for last year August's shorts (if you followed me since last year), although the indexes have recovered to near break evens, 90% of stocks are still bleeding very badly. It is a way to make use of index to add shorts using only profits but later batches of shorts must have tighter stops than earlier ones.

    This strategy was also how I rolled to 120k using 7k, playing the Italian FTSE MIB. But a caveat is that MIB index is extremely and wildly volatile.

    ReplyDelete