Donovan Norfolk's Market Analysis: March 2013

Thursday, 21 March 2013

Announcement: 21 March 2013, Thursday, 10.07pm Singapore Time

To All Avid Readers of Donovan's Market Analysis,

Thank you for your supports.

I would be taking a break away from online write-ups and analyses as I concentrate and put focus on my financial market trades and investment portfolios.

Meantime, I would still post some charts here and there for your benefit.

I will continue with Donovan's Market Analysis after I find time and have a well deserved break.

Meanwhile, best of luck in your trades and investments!

Wednesday, 20 March 2013

Funds Flow Analysis (FFA): 20 March 2013, Wednesday, 5.45pm Singapore Time

Current Latest Computed Funds Flow Analysis (FFA)
For Worldwide Financial Markets:
20 March 2013, Wednesday, 5.45pm Singapore Time

Broad Markets / Big Markets / Big Wind Directions

Based on current latest computational results, Holdings Index Strength of Big Hands changed from -0.393 to +1.282 in strength on the Donovan Funds Flow Index Oscillator. Big Hands took profits of all Puts on hand and switched to slight Calls with holdings index strength changing from -3.597 to +0.857 in strength on the Donovan Funds Flow Index Oscillator.

Broad/Big Market (Big Wind Direction) Immediate-Term/Short-Term Posture by Big Hands:

+ Big Hands took profits of all Puts.
+ Resounding big profits for Big Hands, cashing out big profits on a sudden market spike down
+ Volatility in dual directions as warned yesterday.

Broad/Big Market (Big Wind Direction) Mid-Long Term Outlook by Big Hands:

+ There are beliefs out there that 2013 will be a bear market or economic collapse of some major Western economies such as US (DJIA. S&P500 and NASDAQ); in my analyses, generally 2013 will, on the contrary, be a strong bull due to my FFA and TA.
+ We are currently not in any bear market.
+ Mid-long-term remains a buy on dip for investment purposes in 2013 as markets in Europe and Asia have negated bear market technical structures as mentioned last year 2012.
+ Long term funds are still buying/investing.
+ Short term and immediate term shorts/sells/profit-takings by traders represent entry/re-entry opportunities for longer term investors (i.e. buy on retracement dips).
+ Short term shake-outs on weak holders, or retailers with high leverage and no holding power, represent golden chance to buy on dips cheaply.
+ As highlighted previously, by 2Q/3Q 2013, many markets (except PIIGS) will make new bull market highs since 2009 financial crisis..

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Donovan Big Hands Funds Flow Computational Oscillator
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Donovan's Funds Flow Analysis Index Oscillator:

-10 ----- 0 ------+10

Donovan's Funds Flow Analysis Strength-Index Scale Key:

negative (-ve) = shorting;

positive (+ve) = longing;

0: No shorts and no longs (direction-less)

1-2: Weak strength / weak holdings

3-4: Moderate strength / moderate holdings

5-6: Strong strength / high holdings

7-8:Very strong strength / very high holdings

9-10:: Rally Mode in store if +ve / Plunging Mode in store if -ve

Implication of Broad Markets/Big Markets/Big Wind Indices Directions
If it is a rising tide in Index Big Wind, most or almost all stock boats generally rise;
If it is a receding tide in Index Big Wind, most or almost all stock boats generally go lower.
Hence the importance of Big Wind Directions walked by Big Hands.

Home: http://donovan-ang.blogspot.sg/

Tuesday, 19 March 2013

Funds Flow Analysis (FFA): 19 March 2013, Tuesday, 5.03pm Singapore Time

Current Latest Computed Funds Flow Analysis (FFA)
For Worldwide Financial Markets:
19 March 2013, Tuesday, 5.03pm Singapore Time

Broad Markets / Big Markets / Big Wind Directions

Based on current latest computational results, Holdings Index Strength of Big Hands changed from -0.523 to -0.393 in strength on the Donovan Funds Flow Index Oscillator. Big Hands Puts changed from -2.885 to -3.597 in strength on the Donovan Funds Flow Index Oscillator.

Broad/Big Market (Big Wind Direction) Immediate-Term/Short-Term Posture by Big Hands:

+ Suppressing financial markets for mid-term re-accumulation.
+ Volatility

Broad/Big Market (Big Wind Direction) Mid-Long Term Outlook by Big Hands:

+ There are beliefs out there that 2013 will be a bear market or economic collapse of some major Western economies such as US (DJIA. S&P500 and NASDAQ); in my analyses, generally 2013 will, on the contrary, be a strong bull due to my FFA and TA.
+ We are currently not in any bear market.
+ Mid-long-term remains a buy on dip for investment purposes in 2013 as markets in Europe and Asia have negated bear market technical structures as mentioned last year 2012.
+ Long term funds are still buying/investing.
+ Short term and immediate term shorts/sells/profit-takings by traders represent entry/re-entry opportunities for longer term investors (i.e. buy on retracement dips).
+ Short term shake-outs on weak holders, or retailers with high leverage and no holding power, represent golden chance to buy on dips cheaply.
+ As highlighted previously, by 2Q/3Q 2013, many markets (except PIIGS) will make new bull market highs since 2009 financial crisis..

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Donovan Big Hands Funds Flow Computational Oscillator
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Donovan's Funds Flow Analysis Index Oscillator:

-10 ----- 0 ------+10

Donovan's Funds Flow Analysis Strength-Index Scale Key:

negative (-ve) = shorting;

positive (+ve) = longing;

0: No shorts and no longs (direction-less)

1-2: Weak strength / weak holdings

3-4: Moderate strength / moderate holdings

5-6: Strong strength / high holdings

7-8:Very strong strength / very high holdings

9-10:: Rally Mode in store if +ve / Plunging Mode in store if -ve

Home: http://donovan-ang.blogspot.sg/

Monday, 18 March 2013

Funds Flow Analysis (FFA): 18 March 2013, Monday, 2.03pm Singapore Time

Current Latest Computed Funds Flow Analysis (FFA)
For Worldwide Financial Markets:
18 March 2013, Monday, 2.03pm Singapore Time

Broad Markets / Big Markets / Big Wind Directions

European financial markets are 2 hours away from opening for trading, while US markets (DJIA, SPX, NASDAQ) are 7 hours 30 minutes away from the Monday opening bell (Daylight Saving Time starts 11th March).

Based on current latest computational results, Holdings Index Strength of Big Hands changed from -0.190 to -0.523 in strength on the Donovan Funds Flow Index Oscillator. Big Hands Puts on hand increased from -1.003 to -2.885 in strength on the Donovan Funds Flow Index Oscillator.

Broad/Big Market (Big Wind Direction) Immediate-Term/Short-Term Posture by Big Hands:

+ Market Sell-down today as per anticipated last Friday.
+ Big Hands are dual-pronged sells today for the 4th consecutive day.
+ Big Hands' PUTS are piling up now and are still actively protecting against short term downside.
+ Big Hands have not only reduced net significant longs to zero, but switched from Longs into Shorts since last week as per said last week.
+ Big Hands' immediate term and short term posture are one of sell-down/correction-biased as per highlighted last week.

Broad/Big Market (Big Wind Direction) Mid-Long Term Outlook by Big Hands:

+ There are beliefs out there that 2013 will be a bear market or economic collapse of some major Western economies such as US (DJIA. S&P500 and NASDAQ); in my analyses, generally 2013 will, on the contrary, be a strong bull due to my FFA and TA.
+ We are currently not in any bear market.
+ Mid-long-term remains a buy on dip for investment purposes in 2013 as markets in Europe and Asia have negated bear market technical structures as mentioned last year 2012.
+ Long term funds are still buying/investing.
+ Short term and immediate term shorts/sells/profit-takings by traders represent entry/re-entry opportunities for longer term investors (i.e. buy on retracement dips).
+ Short term shake-outs on weak holders, or retailers with high leverage and no holding power, represent golden chance to buy on dips cheaply.
+ As highlighted previously, by 2Q/3Q 2013, many markets (except PIIGS) will make new bull market highs since 2009 financial crisis..

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Donovan Big Hands Funds Flow Computational Oscillator
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Donovan's Funds Flow Analysis Index Oscillator:

-10 ----- 0 ------+10

Donovan's Funds Flow Analysis Strength-Index Scale Key:

negative (-ve) = shorting;

positive (+ve) = longing;

0: No shorts and no longs (direction-less)

1-2: Weak strength / weak holdings

3-4: Moderate strength / moderate holdings

5-6: Strong strength / high holdings

7-8:Very strong strength / very high holdings

9-10:: Rally Mode in store if +ve / Plunging Mode in store if -ve

Home: http://donovan-ang.blogspot.sg/

Sunday, 17 March 2013

Wilmar International: 17 March 2013, Sunday, 6.10pm Singapore Time

The following Technical Analysis and judgements is an update on Wilmar International

(refer all past Technical Analysis posts of Wilmar here: http://donovan-ang.blogspot.sg/search/label/Wilmar)

Wilmar International: 17 March 2013, Sunday, 6.10pm Singapore Time

Wilmar had a break up as anticipated beforehand (refer all past posts of Wilmar here: http://donovan-ang.blogspot.sg/search/label/Wilmar).

The initial break-up (BLUE CIRCLE) was with healthy volume following which it started to decrease and became a volumeless rally. PINK Support of $3.595 breaking down signifies end of its short term rally.

The 3 RED CIRCLES signify warning signs that short-selling may come back on Wilmar and it is better to sideline away from any longs on Wilmar based on Technical Structure above.

Two Immediate Scenarios will form now:

Scenario 1: Dead Cat Bounce to $3.595 before full sell-down to break down BLACK SUPPORT.
Scenario 2: Straight-away break down BLACK SUPPORT mercilessly without any chance given.

When BLACK SUPPORT breaks down, the selling which forces down prices could be fierce.
Given the Technical Posture above in the latest development, I expect BLACK SUPPORT TO BREAK DOWN.

HOME:

http://donovan-ang.blogspot.sg

Saturday, 16 March 2013

Olam International: 16 March 2013, Saturday, 11.07pm Singapore Time

The above is a follow-up of all my past Technical Analyses on Olam International, one of the world's largest international commodities company: http://donovan-ang.blogspot.sg/search/label/Olam

As above, Olam is currently in the next wave shorting structure and will resume its next phase of sell-down soon; based on Technical Analysis, $1.60-$1.67 represents the next entry for shorts according to Donovan Techincal Structure as above. Selling volume has come back after the calm. In life, the calm often precedes the storm.

A breach of $1.365 will further accelerate Olam Descent down the price structure.

HOME:

http://donovan-ang.blogspot.sg

Capitaland: 16 March 2013, Saturday, 4.15pm Singapore Time

Capitaland Chart 1: 16 March 2013, Saturday, 4.15pm Singapore Time

The above shows the Technical Analysis of Capitaland for mid-term:

1. Capitaland formed a short term GREEN double top which tested the PINK and BLUE resistances successfully.

2. Capitaland breaks down first immediate LIGHT PURPLE support at $3.80 (Warning).

3. Capitaland breaks down PINK support also at $3.80 (Warning)

4. Capitaland breaks down ORANGE major support at $3.60 (Warning)

5. Capitaland backtests ORANGE major support-turned-resistance at $3.60 successful (POWERFUL WARNING)

Capitaland Chart 2 (Close-up view): 16 March 2013, Saturday, 4.15pm Singapore Time

6. Chart 2: Capitaland breaks PINK Bear Flag as confirmation of short-term and mid-term downtrend continuation (Warning).

7. Chart 2: Capitaland forms BLUE consolidation BEAR PENNANT for sell-down continuation (Warning).

8. Chart 2: Refer to statistics below; the sell-down continuation (BREAK-DOWN OF BLUE support at $3.53 and $3.51 respectively were both achieved merely within 5 minutes and only during post-market), suggestive of high bearishness. $3.53 and $3.51 immediate support both broke down within 5 minutes, and happened only post-market, thereby ensuring all market participants are caught by surprise.