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Thursday, 22 February 2018

Hibiscus (KLSE: 5199): Calculating Smart Money Tide's Average Holding Price and Projection of Tide's Target, 22 February 2018, 12.55am Singapore Time

Hibiscus (KLSE: 5199): 
Calculating Smart Money Tide's Average Holding Price and Projection of Tide's Target,
22 February 2018, 12.55am Singapore Time
(Click on Technical Chart above to Expand)

Attached is the cards-counting approach applied on Hibiscus Petroleum in the calculation of Smart Money Tide's Average Holding Price and Projection of Tide's Target. Before we begin this approach, we would need certain assumption to be true: that the retailers often make up a fixed z% volume flow with a fixed y-std-deviation such that the volume flow can be stably in fixed proportion for smart monies in the market. With this in mind and the Pareto Principle in effect, the market volume can now be reasonably fixed as majority belonging to smart money tide without distortion of data from retailers' volumes (everything in fixed proportion).

The 1st dark brown wording region is where the initial mess-up of chips occurred as international crude oil market raced towards the bottom. The 2nd dark brown wording region is where the messing up of chips ended to mark the end of a bottom. 

This was then followed with Main Wave 1 with its volume flow as highlighted in 1st orange zone. In this 1st orange zone, the aggregated volume is around x. The smart money tide's first batch of grabs from all sell queues on offer as well as absorption at the buy queues occurred in the range of 0.40-0.56 with median = 0.48 for this batch.

After slight doldrum in volumes, this was then followed with Main Wave 2 with its volume flow as highlighted in 2nd orange zone. In this 2nd orange zone, the aggregated volume is around 2x, approximately twice the flow of Main Wave 1. The smart money tide's second batch of grabs from all sell queues on offer as well as absorption at the buy queues occurred in the range of 0.60-1.16 with median = 0.88 for this batch.

For the entire Main Wave 1 + Main Wave 2, the Smart Money Tide's Estimated Average Holding Price = (1x0.48+2x0.88)/3 = 0.74667 for Hibiscus Petroleum. 

Compare now to the purple circled region on chart: this is why Hibiscus Petroleum rebounded very sharply from 0.76000 right after early-February's worldwide market correction ended. Because smart money tide's majority stockpile of longs are at around 0.74667. They need to protect the stockpiles of longs. The high volume protection zone had been set up in DARK GREEN RECTANGLE. This is an invisibly and invincibly strong SUPPORT.

Now, for effective distribution to be able to take place in future, prices need to go to at least 3x 0.74667 = 2.240 target price. This makes current prices close to majority of stockpiles held by smart money tide. This is why current prices are still extremely cheap, because there is a lot of room for more than +100% profits (more multi-fold run to come).

The Donovan Norfolk Technical Rating:
Bullish 
with 
MULTI-FOLD PROFIT UPSIDE

Past Hibiscus Analyses and Track Records:
https://donovan-ang.blogspot.sg/search/label/Hibiscus%20Petroleum

Top 8 Commodity Stocks of Malaysia:
(These trenders will continue to go trending up powerfully and widen the gap from the pack)
http://donovan-ang.blogspot.sg/2018/01/commodities-cyclical-upturn-to-come.html

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