Singapore Property Market: 5 January 2014, Sunday, 2.10pm Singapore Time
Chart from Chartnexus.com
Attached above is the Singapore FTSE ST Real Estate Index.
This is a follow-up of previous Singapore Property Market Analysis (with Track Records):
As per reiterated amidst the optimism in October 2012 (RED BOX in chart above) that Singapore Property Market had reached an upwave price satisfaction, had hit fair value, and that anything above would then be a deliberate creation for over-valued distribution (i.e. big hands selling at best prices), the down-turn came as warned. This was where I had warned in advance too that the Smart Money would get out of properties with Fools' Money getting in.
The distribution was then very pronounced in first half of 2013 (Orange Circle in chart above) with a break down of both the BLACK SUPPORT and the PINK DISTRIBUTION SUPPORT as illustrated in the chart above. This entire distributional operation was warned ahead in my analysis at the end of 2012, suggesting a get-out exit with maximum profits during that time from the Singapore Property Market.
This downtrend has received first confirmation in July 2013 (refer chart above) and received R0, R1, R2 and R3 as second confirmation, third confirmation, forth confirmation and fifth confirmation respectively (refer to chart above too).
With such a Technical Structural Layout as above, coupled with my World Markets Funds Flow Analysis which reflects very persistent and confident shorts by the Big Hands and Market-Movers worldwide, the DARK BLUE LINE SUPPORT is expected to break down for the next phase of property plunge. This is in conjunction with my worldwide financial market bearishness.
When the DARK BLUE SUPPORT breaks down, there will be virtually no support or, if any, merely very thin support until FTSE ST Real Estate Index hits 600-620 points.
When the DARK BLUE SUPPORT breaks down, there will be virtually no support or, if any, merely very thin support until FTSE ST Real Estate Index hits 600-620 points.
Donovan Rating:
The target for this downmove in Singapore Property Market is expected to be roughly a 104 point drop in FTSE ST Real Estate Index, i.e. a significant correction of -14.29% in the Property Market. Assuming a 1-1 translational correlation to properties in general, a $1 million-valuation property will suffer roughly a $140k loss during this immediate market move.
Bearish (SHORT) also on the following Equities:
Capitaland, Keppel Land, CityDev, UOL, Wing Tai, Ho Bee, Hong Fok, Roxy-Pacific, all Singapore REITS, and all other Singapore Property Stocks.
Bearish (SHORT) also on the following Equities:
Capitaland, Keppel Land, CityDev, UOL, Wing Tai, Ho Bee, Hong Fok, Roxy-Pacific, all Singapore REITS, and all other Singapore Property Stocks.
On an extension basis, expect COV and COE to both drop again in at least 1Q and 2Q of 2014.
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All Past Property Analyses:
Donovan Norfolk Ang
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Donovan
ReplyDeleteFor those who does not hold physcial property but want to take advantage of your analysis above, what can one do ?
Short the property counters ? Reits or ETFs ?
Your views ? Thanks a lot !
Bearish on the following Property Equities:
ReplyDeleteCapitaland, Keppel Land, CityDev, UOL, Wing Tai, Ho Bee, Hong Fok, Roxy-Pacific, all Singapore REITS, and all other Singapore Property Stocks.
Donovan Rating:
SHORT these properties till I turn for bullish reversal technical rebound.