Monday, 4 November 2013

Funds Flow Analysis (FFA): 4 November 2013, Monday, 3.45pm Singapore Time



Current Latest Computed Funds Flow Analysis (FFA):
For Worldwide Financial Markets:
4 November 2013, Monday, 3.45pm Singapore Time

The Donovan Norfolk Ang Funds Flow Analysis Indicator 
for Worldwide Financial Markets 
4 November 2013, Monday
Broad Markets / Big Markets / Big Wind Directions

European markets are 15 minutes away from opening for trading, while US markets (Dow, S&P500 and NASDAQ) are 6 hours 45 minutes away from the opening bell. 

Based on current latest computational results, Holdings Index Strength of Big Hands changed from +3.213 to -0.646 in strength on the Donovan Norfolk Funds Flow Index Oscillator. On the other front, Big Hands' Puts holdings on hand changed from -3.649 to -5.321 in strength on the Donovan Norfolk Funds Flow Index Oscillator. 

Broad/Big Market (Big Wind Direction) Short-Term / Mid-Term Posture by Big Hands:

+ Big Hands continue to execute dual sells for the 2nd consecutive trading day (since last Friday): Reduction in Longs to become slight net Shorts in Holdings now, and continual increase in Puts for yet another trading day (amount of puts are now at bloated levels).
+ For second week in a row, Smart Money are using immediate term correction to spike up Puts' prices while persistently not accumulating much shorts.
+ Big Hands' Puts since last week are again in the money now (i.e. in profits now again).
+ Market-Movers are still looking to execute short term corrections on indices, index stocks, big cap stocks and mid cap stocks worldwide as per reiterated last week.
+  Short-term healthy corrections are expected to be executed anytime now; however, do bear in mind that mid-term worldwide market outlook is still upwave-biased.

+ Posture: Short-term corrections to be in place within the larger Mid-term upwave, with the short-term correction enough to shakeout weak holders and larger upwave expected to last till Christmas/Chinese New Year based on current estimation. 
+ Any immediate-term/short-term corrections worldwide will create effective noise/smoke, but based on totality analysis, they are to be taken as subsets of healthy mid-term upwave movements.
+ Investors/Bulls could re-accumulate buys on dips on quality equities and stocks for the larger mid-term rallies per reiterated since end-August and early-September.

+ As the Puts kept on increasing, short-term corrections within the larger mid-term upwave is expected to be in place now. The following are the short term correction targets as per reiterated since last week:


+ Below are shallow short-term correction targets of any correction, if it comes, so that the rally can go even higher:
1. Malaysian FKLI: 1,790 points and a whipsaw just below 1790 points.(refer: http://donovan-ang.blogspot.sg/2013/10/fkli-index-25-october-2013-1215pm.html) 
2. Hong Kong Hang Seng Index: 22,000 points and 22,770 points. 
3. UK FTSE100: 6500-6550 points.
4. European Euro STOXX50: 2804 points.
5. US NASDAQ Composite: 3700 points.
8. GBPUSD (BritishPound-USD): 1.57000-1.57500
9. NZDUSD (NewZealandDollar-USD): 0.81000
9. AUD, NZD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD, CHF will generally be weak until the corrections end. 

+ Note that the short-term corrections are expected to be shallow and are to be taken as healthy retracement. Shorting can still be profitable but reward-risk ratio may not be good compared to buying-on-dip.

+ FFA Litmus Test Results:
International financial markets worldwide (Stocks, Equities, Indices, Commodities, Forex: EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, CANADIAN DOLLAR CAD, SWISS FRANC CHF AND JAPANESE YEN JPY, Gold, Silver, Crude Palm Oil and Crude Oil) are still within a mid-term relief rally bounce and any short term corrections are to be judged as healthy retracement within larger mid-term upwaves.

+ Below are the much larger mid-term upwave targets that still hold:

+ Financial Markets, Commodities Markets, Oil, Gold, Silver and Forex markets (EURUSD, GBPUSD, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, Canadian Dollar, AUDUSD, NZDUSD) are still expected to have some more upside against the US Dollar, and this upside is expected to be healthy until I turn big reversal.

+ Expectations are still unchanged: FCPO 3000RM as target, Gold $1500-$1550 as first target and $1750-$1800 as second target, Silver $30.000 as target, Golden Agri (Palm Oil Stock) S$0.60 as 1st target and S$0.74 as 2nd target, AUDUSD $0.96 as first target and $1.00 parity as 2nd target, USDJPY ￥83.54-￥84.00 as final target, India CNX Nifty Index 6188-6320 as up-move target and break-out of 6320 points for uncharted rally as second target, and Oil $118.00-$120.00 as tentative target, FKLI 1900 points as target, or until I turn reversal.

+ And the ULTIMATE BIG TARGET: Stocks Worldwide and across the international boards to rally on every overbought and on top of public disbelief. 

+ Emerging Markets, ASEAN markets, Asia Markets and Peripheral European Markets are expected to outperform: Risk-on Rallies worldwide still expected together with Gold, Silver and Commodities, and will continue up-move until I turn reversal.

+ Special Note: 
Each of the respective asset class markets (Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Palm Oil, Commodities, Forex, Stocks and Worldwide Stock Market Indices) have moved in my directions since.

+ So far, only India SGX/CNX Nifty Index, AUDUSD has hit initial targets as above listed. 
+ More upsides in worldwide financial markets (Stocks, Equities, Indices, Commodities, Forex: EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, CANADIAN DOLLAR CAD, SWISS FRANC CHF AND JAPANESE YEN JPY, Gold, Silver, Crude Palm Oil and Crude Oil)  are still expected (refer past analyses).
+ Japan's QE effects are wearing out, Nikkei-225 may become the weakest link of international financial markets when the rising tide ends.

Broad/Big Market (Big Wind Direction) Long Term Outlook by Big Hands:

+ Weak markets (e.g. Philippines, India, Korea etc) had entered into Bear Market Zones at high points previously.
+ Strong markets (e.g. US, Singapore, Germany, etc) had held on to critical supports temporarily and will attempt to bounce off these critical supports; these critical supports will get tested repeatedly (their critical supports are still being tested currently).
+ US markets (DJIA, S&P500 and NASDAQ) will go on to make all time new highs while all other markets are still in support-turned-resistance testing modes.
+ Rebounds of emerging economies will merely be dead cat bounces.

In essence, there will be 3 groups of BIG MARKET MOVEMENTS from now:

1st Group (Weak Markets): 

Weak markets such as Korea KOSPI , Philippines, Indonesia, Spain IBEX etc.
These markets already broke down critical supports which denote initial bear market stage; these will do dead cat bouncing back-tests (falling knife dead cat rebounds). 
Sell on rebounds.

2nd group (Mid-strength Markets): 

Singapore STI, Hong Kong HSI, UK FTSE100, France CAC, Italy MIB, Spain etc
These markets will rebound off critical supports now (STI 2925-3065 pts, HSI 19000-19500 pts, FTSE-UK 5900-6000 pts as analysed previously), with no breakdowns yet. Refer to all past technical analyses.
Ride, observe and be cautiously ready to sell.

3rd grp (Strong Markets): 

US Markets of S&P500, DJIA and NASDAQ, German DAX as well as Malaysian KLCI
These markets may hover at all time new highs and throw a big array of confusions to traders, investors and analysts. While US hover around all time new highs, weak markets' rebounds will confirm bear market and mid-strength markets may transit to bear market phase in this rebound.
Ride and observe and be cautious.

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Donovan Big Hands Funds Flow Computational Oscillator
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Donovan's Funds Flow Analysis Index Oscillator:
-10 ----- 0 ------+10
Donovan's Funds Flow Analysis Strength-Index Scale Key:
negative (-ve) = shorting;
positive (+ve) = longing;
0: No shorts and no longs (direction-less)
1-2: Weak strength / weak holdings
3-4: Moderate strength / moderate holdings
5-6: Strong strength / high holdings
7-8:Very strong strength / very high holdings
9-10:: Rally Mode in store if +ve / Plunging Mode in store if -ve

Implication of Broad Markets/Big Markets/Big Wind Indices Directions
If it is a rising tide in Index Big Wind, most or almost all stock boats generally rise;
If it is a receding tide in Index Big Wind, most or almost all stock boats generally go lower.
Hence the importance of Big Wind Directions blown by Big Hands.



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